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Wireless Updates from San Jose and Chicago

Alan Weissberger — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 00:15:51 +0000

Update from US Telecom’s Executive Briefing in San Jose

At the US Telecom Association’s 2nd Annual Executive Business Forum this week in San Jose, CA, Link Hoewing, Verizon’s VP of Internet and Technology Policy, stated that Verizon Wireless plans to roll out LTE in early 2010 (that’s about 18 months from now!) with, "possibily 75M bit/sec downstream rate."

At the same conference, Robert Brown, Wayport’s Director of Business Development for Strategic Roaming and Managed Services stated that WiFi hot spots are growing very rapidly and that more and more people on the move are using WiFi devices (e.g.cameras, MP3 players, mobile phones) for Internet connectivity. Wayport is largest operator of WiFi hotspots in the U.S. and the largest managed WiFi hot spot service provider (they manage AT &Ts WiFi network).

Note: The agenda and some of the presentations for this excellent conference are at:

http://ustelecom.org/Events/EventSubPages/Second-Annual-USTelecom-Executive-Business-Forum-Agenda.html

Please let me know if you have questions or request for my take on any of the presentations I heard.

So with LTE moving faster than expected at the high end and WiFi hot spots increasing dramatically at the low end, where does that leave mobile WiMAX? We review important take aways from WiMAX World in Chicago and results from SPRINTs XOHM WiMAX launch in Baltimore this week. Then we offer an opinion and conclusions. Good reading!

WiMAX World and More….

The 2008 WiMAX World show wrapped up this week in Chicago and offered a nice perspective on the industry and the possibilities of full-mobility, wireless broadband connectivity. This article lists 10 key points from the show.

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/october/Top-10-Key-Take-Aways-from-WiMAX-World-2008

Reaching into WiMAX’s Pocket By Rhonda Wickham WirelessWeek - October 03, 2008

This week’s WiMAX World wasn’t exactly the all-out enthusiastic trade event you might expect from a technology that launched its first commercial U.S. mobile network the day before the show doors opened. The mood was decidedly tempered as most folks were pondering the economic situation that was playing out on the world stage around them.
What should have been an exuberant time for this new sector was instead tarnished as many conversations were punctuated with financial feasibility questions.

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Reaching-into-WiMAX-Pocket.aspx

Sprint’s 4G Xohm WiMax: How fast is it?

The following link provides an excellent summary of the real world speeds and the real world devices (the Nokia tablet device is especially interesting) available in Sprint’s WiMax deployment in Baltimore.

http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9116844&intsrc=hm_ts_head

XOHM WiMAX Broadband Service Debuts in Baltimore

Earlier this week, Sprint officially launched XOHM TM (its mobile WiMAX commercial offering) in Baltimore, MD. “This is truly an historic day with the birth of a completely new Internet-based business model that alters the dynamics of the traditional telecom industry,” explained Barry West, president of Sprint’s XOHM business unit. “Wireless consumers will experience WiMAX device and XOHM service innovation on multiple levels as the computer, Internet, telecom and consumer electronics industries converge to redefine wireless mobility.”

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/september/XOHM-WiMAX-Broadband-Service-Debuts-in-Baltimore-0929

Xohm Could Restrict Usage By Brad Smith, WirelessWeek - October 03, 2008

When Sprint’s Xohm launched in Baltimore earlier in the week, the launch raised some questions about the future. Are there usage restrictions? Are there more devices coming? What about long-term pricing? Where and when will other markets launch?
Atish Gude, senior vice president for mobile broadband operations for Xohm, answered some of those questions Thursday in his keynote to WiMAX World 2008. Others didn’t get answers.

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Xohm-Restrict-Usage.aspx

Alvarion Notches WiMAX Win in the US Heartland with Wisper

Midwest based Wisper chooses Alvarion to supply a dual spectrum WiMAX deployment in both 2.5 GHz and 3.65 GHz. In what is the first dual-frequency deployment of WiMAX radios in the US, Minnesota-based Wisper chooses Alvarion to supply both a 2.5 GHz licensed spectrum solution and a 3.65 GHz lightly regulated spectrum solution.

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/october/alvarion-notches-wimax-win-in-the-us-heartland-with-wisper

DCT/Weissberger Opinion:

For a long time, mobile WiMAX was said to be the first 4G like mobile broadband service with a 3 or 4 year lead time over LTE. However, that window of opportunity for WiMAX is shrinking fast, as the WiMAX commercial rollouts have been delayed while carrier LTE plans and progress have accelerated. There seems to be much more telco focus and endorsement of that technology then WiMAX is enjoying, especially among Tier 1 mobile carriers.

Conclusion:

So it appears mobile WiMAX is being squeezed into a small niche market in developed countries like the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S. we observe expanding WiFi hotspots and WiFi based fixed broadband access putting severe cost pressure on WiMAX. With the financial crisis, how will WiMAX providers justify the high build out and deployment costs when they will have to charge very low rates to compete with free (or almost free) WiFi? What about the cost of mobile WiMAX CPE, especially on PDAs, smart phones, gadgets, etc when WiFi is already built into those for almost no cost?

At the same time, the lead time mobile WiMAX has over LTE deployments is shrinking fast. So where does that leave the market for mobile WiMAX? We have long stated mobile WiMAX would be predominantly used for fixed wireless broadband access in developing countries (without wireline infrastructure) and for DSL substitution in rural areas that can not be cost effectively serviced by DSL. Our opinion has not changed based on this week’s breaking news and conference reports. We also do not see any progress on the "Internet in your pocket" type of Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) that Intel talked about at our ComSoc SCV January 2008 meeting.

Do you agree with this analysis or do you have a different opinion?

Will Wireless Networks really be open? What does that mean?

Alan Weissberger — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 05:33:12 +0000

This year’s CTIA show occurred just one month before the 25th anniversary of the first commercial cellular call. At the opening keynote session, Steve Largent, President and CEO of CTIA, made a few opening remarks and then moderated a panel of several wireless executives. Steve, a former All Pro NFL receiver, glibly rifled off the following statistics from CTIA’s Wireless Industry Survey: $15B wireless data revenues in the US during the last six months (20% of carrier revenues vs only 10% two years ago), US has overtaken Europe in 3G subscribers, 75M text messages sent each month (a 160% year over year growth rate as of June). Steve also noted that the mobile content business is robust and growing rapidly. It’s likely that user-generated mobile content (text, photos, videos and audio) will far surpass user-generated content on PCs.

Mr. Largent predicted that going forward, wireless broadband would experience rapid change, higher speeds, and much more choice for consumers. Capabilities such as GPS, video, MP3, photo sharing, location based services (including the ability to get directions to a desired store or restaurant) would be forthcoming.

During the panel session, wireless industry executives indicated that walled gardens were a thing of the past and that wireless networks are opening up. It appeared that some operators would focus on opening the network to devices (Verizon Wireless), while others will likely focus more on applications (Sprint and T-Mobile). AT&T Wireless did not participate in this panel, but was represented in a Mobile Web 2.0 session.
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Definitions:

"Open Networks" is the ability to run an application on all mobile networks (from different providers) without any modification to the software resident in the client device. This is the rationale for the Android platform and Open Mobile Alliance.

There’s also the concept of "Open Applications," which is the ability to publish your application or service without interference from anyone, including the wireless network operator. Example: Google Android (vs. control by Apple over the Apple Store).
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Sprint Nextel

CEO Dan Hesse’s vision of open echoed what Kevin Packingham, Sprint’s Sr. Vice President previously said. Sprint believes that customers want the same accessibility to the Internet from their mobile device that they get from their notebook or desktop PC. But to date, wireless network operators have offered customers their own approved applications running on devices they sell and control. Yet customers ultimately want a choice. Sprint is working hard to help customers get easier access to the mobile Web through personalization and customization.

T-Mobile’s

strategy is a bit less clear. During the keynote, CEO Robert Dotson talked about how important it is to have open devices and open applications. He touted the fact that the company uses GSM-based technology so many consumers can already use third-party devices on the T-Mobile network by putting a T-Mobile SIM card in the device. He also expounded how the carrier hopes to "unleash innovation" through its new developer program and the importance of supporting open source operating systems.

Verizon Wireless

is initially focusing on opening its network to devices. While applications are a big part of the open equation and will likely result in big business for the operator, Verizon believes the key is to first act as a catalyst for the device makers by making it easier for them to get their devices certified and operating on the network. To understand Verizon’s strategy, one needs to broaden the concept of a mobile "device" to think beyond handsets and PC cards. Thermostats, heating and cooling, home appliances, medical devices, airline sensors are all new potential wireless network devices. "Start thinking what it would be like if every thermostat was connected to the network," said Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam. "What if the airline industry put sensors on engines in aircraft to predict failures before they happen? This will impact the way people live and manage their lives."

Sue Marek of Fierce Wireless interviewed Verizon Wireless’ Vice President of Open Development Anthony Lewis, who is charged with developing Verizon’s "open device and application" initiative. Lewis talked about Verizon’s progress on open networks and why this wireless carrier’s approach is different from its competitors. Please see:
http://www.fiercewireless.com/ctialive/story/hot-seat-verizons-anthony-lewis/2008-09-17

Conclusions

It seems that operators are finally talking about open networks and open applications. But is it just talk or are they really going to make it happen? For sure, there is a lot more work to be done to turn the theories and visions into reality. It would be nice if U.S. wireless networks would become as open as European GSM networks are today. If it does happen, a much bigger market for wireless data (=non-voice) applications would emerge. That would surely result in more innovation for developers and more choice for users. A likely outcome then would be for mobile applications and services to eventually dominate the wireless operator revenue stream, with all participants sharing the revenue in an equitable manner.

References

For CTIA session video clips and photos, please visit:

http://daily.ctia.org/wirelessit08/

For a roundup of SPRINT’s views on open networks, please see:

http://sprintconnection.kansascity.com/?q=node/795

In an opposing point of view: Skype official calls out carriers on "open" networks

In a strongly-worded letter to the FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, a Skype official complained that the major U.S. wireless carriers were all talk when it came to "open" networks, and that if the Commission wanted to live up to its stated goal of making open networks more accessible, it would affirm that this policy covers wireless networks.

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/skype-exec-calls-out-carriers-open-networks/2008-09-16?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal&cmp-id=EMC-NL-FW&dest=FW

More telco woes: WiMAX spending drops + Broadband growth slows as RBOCs add fewer xDSL lines!

Alan Weissberger — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:44:07 +0000

FierceBroadbandWireless wonders if the recent reported financial results of WiMAX companies is the beginning of a shakeout in the industry between winners (few) and losers (many).

http://fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/wimax/2008-08-10

Key WiMAX vendors including Alvarion, Redline, Airspan and NextWave posted quarterly results recently as did WiMAX bellwethers Sprint-Nextel and Clearwire: The general takeaway is that WiMAX spending is way down and the economic downturn alone may not explain the decrease.

NextWave is in big trouble: "We are feeling the effects of a slowing global economy on our business. This has resulted in lower than anticipated sales of our 3GPP and WiFi-based network products and a delay in WiMAX network deployments that will continue to impact projected sales of our WiMAX semiconductor products," CEO Allen Salmasi stated in a release. NextWave needs new funding to stay in business.

Redline also indicated a delay in WiMAX spending was coming during its preliminary second-quarter results announcement last month. The Canadian WiMAX vendor adjusted its revenue outlook, cutting $6 million off forecasts for the second quarter.

Airspan reported a slight three percent decrease in Q2 revenues to $21.4 million.

Alvarion is doing OK: "Current customers are expanding their networks, bookings are strong, and the pipeline of potential new business is large and growing. This further increases our confidence in our ability to achieve the upper end of our target revenue range of $275 to $300 million for 2008," CEO and President Tzvika Friedman stated.

In the meantime, Clearwire is bearing the brunt of merger expenses: The service provider reported a net loss of $199.1 million, compared with a net loss of $118.1 million this time last year. The results included $27.9 million in impairment losses on investments and expenses of $10.2 million related to the JV process.

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CNET: Broadband growth plummets in Q2 for both telcos and cablecos

Cable operators and phone companies signed up about half the number of subscribers in the second quarter of 2008 that they signed up during the same quarter in 2007. Twenty of the largest cable operators and phone companies in the U.S. only signed up about 887,000 new subscribers during the quarter, the Leichtman Research Group reported Monday. This was the lowest level of new subscribers the research group has seen in the seven years it’s been reporting on the broadband market.

Phone companies appeared to be the hardest hit by the slowdown, only adding about 23 percent of the customers they added during the same quarter a year ago. Fewer than 890,000 new subscribers signed up with the 20 largest telcos and cable companies in the quarter, the smallest number of new customers in at least seven years, said the Leichtman Research Group.

Cable companies signed up about 85 percent as many customers as they did in the same quarter last year. "While the relative number of quarterly broadband adds has certainly peaked, the decline in additions this quarter compared to the same period last year was exacerbated by Verizon and AT&T’s emphasis on selling higher speed FiOS and U-verse bundled services, often at the expense of the traditional DSL service," he said in a press release.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-10015275-93.html

Fierce Telecom finds that Q2 finds telcos under pressure August 11, 2008

"Telcos are now under pressure not only in their legacy businesses (landline voice), but also in the next-generation business (broadband) that is supposed to be off-setting legacy market pressure. Most U.S. telcos continued to lose landlines at rates ranging, for the most part, from 5 percent (Windstream) to 7.8 percent (Embarq) and on up to 10.2 percent (Qwest), but telcos have had a few years to get used to these numbers. They are no longer surprising, even though their ongoing uptick is extremely disconcerting. What they have not yet gotten used to, but have been warned about by market researchers within the last year or so, is a slowing in broadband subscriber growth. The second quarter of 2008 was perhaps the first time we have seen evidence of that pressure on an industry-wide basis, with AT&T, Verizon and other telcos adding broadband subscribers at slower rates."

http://www.fiercetelecom.com/story/q2-finds-telcos-under-pressure/2008-08-11?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal&cmp-id=EMC-NL-FT&dest=FT

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Meanwhile, IGI Group’s 2nd Quarter High Speed Access Line report claims that the RBOCs are adding much fewer xDSL lines then forecast:

http://www.igigroup.com/mmail/08.11.08/chart1_large.gif

http://igigroup.com/nl/pages/highspeed.html

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Garnter Group: Carriers need new game plan to survive in digital age, Aug 13th

Fixed and mobile carriers in mature markets must transform themselves into "IT and network factories" and support new services all but unrelated to telecoms in order to survive in the digital age.

The warning comes from industry analyst Gartner, which said this week that by 2012, it expects around half of the 20 largest carriers worldwide to be offering new services only minimally related to telecommunications.

Furthermore, leading carriers in developed markets are forecast to be deriving at least 15 per cent of their revenue from non traditional sources as they seek to combat declining voice revenues.

In order to find new growth, carriers will need to develop a wide range of new digital services and will increasingly find themselves competing on a broader playing field and going up against internet companies, such as Google, as well as equipment providers, such as Nokia.

http://www.telecoms.com/itmgcontent/tcoms/news/articles/20017561239.html

WiMAX in India Update

Alan Weissberger — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:19:12 +0000

Indian WiMAX Spectrum Winners can offer voice, says DoT - August 29, 2008

India’s Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has proposed that winners in the upcoming licence auctions for broadband wireless access (BWA) - read mobile WiMAX - will be able to offer voice as well as data services.
But the dispensation comes at a price. Instead of calculating the BWA licence reserve price at 25 per cent of the 3G licence reserve price on a per MHz basis, the DoT has proposed, following recommendations made by the Telecom Commission, that BWA licence winners pay at least 50 per cent of the base 3G licence cost.

India 3G licence auctions are scheduled for later this year (but the exact date has not been set).

http://www.telecoms.com/itmgcontent/tcoms/news/articles/20017565706.html

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4th Update: Intel’s WiMAX in India Push - August 19, 2008

Upshot: Intel is negotiating with WiMAX operators in India while promising to deliver a very low cost laptop with an embedded WiMAX interface

Intel talks progress for WiMAX rollout in India

Betting big on WiMax in India, chip giant Intel is in talks with telecom operators to enable the growth of WiMax ecosystem through its products for boosting the penetration of wireless broadband in the world’s fastest-growing telecom market.

The US-based company is working with ODMs (original device manufacturers) to evolve new products like WiMax USB dongle, mobile internet devices (MIDs) besides WiMax notebooks with an aim to have wireless broadband networks running by the first quarter of 2009 in India.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3378508.cms

Intel readies sub-$400 laptop for India

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3377752.cms

27.5M WiMax Users In India by 2012

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/275_mn__WiMAX_users_in_India_by_2012_Study/articleshow/3369401.cms

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3rd Update: WiMAX in India article- still waiting for licenses!

While the Indian government will soon hold 3G auctions, it has not yet issued rules and regulations for the licensed spectrum auction needed for WiMAX deployment. Why not? Until that happens, WiMAX in India is on hold.

Here are a couple of articles on the announcement of the long awaited 3G Spectrum Auction in India:

India’s 3G Auction: sometime soon?

Although the exact date is not clear, it is rumored that the government is planning to hold the all-important auction for allocation of licenses for 3G sometime soon. We hope this happens soon as it’s high time 3G services are launched here, especially since other countries have already started looking beyond 3G.

http://www.techtree.com/India/News/3G_in_India_Auction_Soon/551-918…

Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) Applauds the Announcement of a Spectrum Auction for 3G Services in India

Arlington, Va. – The Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA), the leader in advocacy, standards development, business development and intelligence for the information and communications technology (ICT) industry, applauds the Indian government’s recent announcement of its guidelines for auction and allotment of spectrum for 3G telecom services and broadband wireless access. This long anticipated announcement will help ensure that Indian consumers can access the latest wireless technologies for voice and data services.

TIA is encouraged that the Indian government has addressed a number of concerns raised by global industry regarding the allocation and eligibility criteria for 3G spectrum. TIA, as Chair of the Telecommunications Subcommittee of the U.S.-India ICT Working Group, has been recommending to India for many years that it identify, allocate and distribute Spectrum for 3G and Broadband Wireless Services. The new auction guidelines are a positive step toward accomplishing this goal.

To obtain the actual documents, please visit

WiMAX and LTE Go Separate Ways- No Merger Likely Any Time Soon

Alan Weissberger — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 21:27:53 +0000

The Bottom Line:

Brad Smith of Wireless Week said it best in his July by-lined article, "It won’t happen. The harmonization of WiMAX and LTE, that is."

Please see: http://www.wirelessweek.com/Article-Marriage-WiMAX-LTE.aspx

Sprint, which was one of the founding members of the NGMN in 2006, has recently quit that Alliance after it selected LTE as the 4G technology to pursue for mobile broadband. Both AT&T and VZW have also focused on LTE, as have all of the large European wireless carriers. On the other hand, neither Sprint or Intel have announced any plans for LTE and will continue their quest of the WiMAX holy grail.

Analysis:

The major wireless network operators are determined to ensure that emerging wireless/ mobile technologies are optimized to meet their commercial needs. The most powerful body coordinating the network operators’ activities is the NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks) Alliance, which numbers 18 carrier members and works with a wide range of other standards bodies and alliances. When it was first formed, it seemed to be a force for unity across the industry, prepared to support more than one access network technology, and bring various 4G contenders within a common umbrella of patents policies, performance tests and interoperability systems. But now the operators are descending into the same skirmishes that have often delayed or fragmented standards over which the vendors have ruled. The clearest proof of that is that the NGMN Alliance has selected just one technology - LTE - for its preferred next generation mobile broadband network. That decision prompted one of WiMAX’ greatest supporters- Sprint Nextel - to quit the Alliance. Sprint was one of the founding members of the NGMN in 2006. Now, Sprint looks increasingly isolated amongst the network operator community as it has quit the NGMN Alliance while the other operators remain.

Sprint is under further pressure. AT&T has filed a petition with the FCC to block the formation of the "New Clearwire" because of uncertainty of how that company’s spectrum will be used.

http://www.wimax360.com/profiles/blog/show?id=610217%3ABlogPost%3A84542

Meanwhile, the IEEE 802.16 standards committee completed its work on (licensed) Mobile WiMAX two years again and has no projects to evolve to LTE. The 802.16 Task Group m (TGm): Advanced Air Interface is further developing the P802.16m project to amend the IEEE 802.16 WirelessMAN-OFDMA specification so that, while offering continuing support for legacy WirelessMAN-OFDMA equipment, it can meet the emerging cellular layer requirements of IMT-Advanced next generation mobile networks. But that work is quite generic and not specifically related to LTE. Meanwhile, the WiMAX Forum has been certifying equipment and WiMAX compliant networks have been rolling out this year. Backward compatibility will not be possible if WiMAX and LTE were to come together.

These diverging developments dampen hopes for a near term convergence of WiMAX and LTE into a single mobile broadband standard leading up to 4G. After selecting LTE earlier this month, the NGMN Alliance stated that it would assess WiMAX again in its next iteration, IEEE 802.16m. This strongly implies that WiMAX and LTE will remain separate for the current generation. However, they might converge in a few years at the 802.16m/LTE 2 stage, assuming that both technologies have strong market positions at that time. But few believe that Mobile WiMAX and LTE will be harmonized any time soon.

For more information, please see the following articles:

http://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/sprint-ends-membership-ngmn-alliance-after-group-backs-lte/2008-07-17
http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=24113&email=html

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Article-Marriage-WiMAX-LTE.aspx

http://3g4g.blogspot.com/2008/07/lte-and-wimax-harmonization.html

Here’s a brief tutorial on NMNM technology: http://www.ngmn.org/index.php?id=31

Opinion: We continue to believe that mobile WiMAX will be deployed for fixed broadband wireless access in developing countries which have little or no wireline infrastructure. Here is one firm’s corroborating opinion about Latin America:

"Challengers in Latin America are choosing WiMAX as their access solution because it allows them to offer convergent solutions and a faster time to market. These companies can easily adopt WiMAX because, unlike incumbent operators, they are more adaptable to opportunities and restrictions inherent in the technology and the market. Pyramid Research believes that due to their flexibility, other CLECs will choose WiMAX as their access technology and, in the next five years, WiMAX will be the fastest growing wireless technology, reaching nearly 6m subscribers in the region by 2012."*

*Excerpt from Pyramid’s Network Solutions & Strategies Perspective: "CLECs Choosing WiMAX to Challenge Incumbents in Latin America"; July 25, 2008.

An Unhealthy Industry: Telecom reports indicate continued contraction in revenues and growth

Alan Weissberger — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 22:25:06 +0000

Having just analyzed recent reports from telecom companies, we conclude that the telecom recession/ depression continues. Revenues are falling way short of expectation, growth is limited to mobile data, and profits are minuscule with the exception of Verizon (VZ). But even at VZ, the growth seems to be coming almost entirely from new wireless data services for mobile subscribers, while customer installations for FiOS seems to be stalling (despite the huge build-out cost and heavy promotion). Perhaps the most important earnings report tidbit was that VZW (a joint venture between VZ and Vodafone-UK) said its churn rate — the pace at which customers defect to other carriers — fell to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. By comparison, Sprint Nextel has a churn rate of 2.45 percent.

Comment: With all the consolidation that has taken place in telco land- both in the network operator and equipment spaces- one would expect profit margins to be a lot higher, due to less competition and the power of scale. But they aren’t. The industry seemed to be a lot healthier in the late 1990s when competitive carriers were expanding their business to both enterprise and residential customers. But alas, they were wiped out after the dot com bust and stock market meltdown of 2000-2002. An entire food chain/ ecosystem collapsed shortly thereafter as the innovative new equipment companies had no one to sell to and the software and services companies had no one to support.

Growth engines: Telecom growth today seems to be restricted to developing countries which have little or no fixed line infrastructure. Mobile data continues to grow everywhere with more and more people wanting to access the Internet on the move. Mobile video and multi-media services over broadband wireless networks (e.g. WiMAX, HSPA, LTE) may provide an engine for future growth, but that remains to be seen. We hope telco video (both FiOS-RF and IPTV based delivery of broadcast video) will succeed, as it would provide real competition for the monopolistic cable companies that charge ever higher prices for digital video and provide terrible customer service. However, we are concerned with FiOS apparently stalling as indicated in the VZ report below.

Here’s a roundup of relevant telecom company reports in the past week:

Nortel warns of U.S. market woes, shares fall

Wojtek Dabrowski , Reuters August 01, 2008

TORONTO - Nortel Networks Corp said on Friday its quarterly loss tripled on restructuring charges and currency exchange losses, and its shares fell as the telecom equipment company warned that a tough U.S. market is choking wireless spending by carriers. The loss widened to $113 million, or 23 cents a share, from $37 million, or 7 cents a share, a year earlier. The latest results included $67 million in restructuring charges and a loss of $21 million, primarily from mark-to-market losses on interest rate swaps.

"The macro environment in the U.S. and the U.S. carrier spend continues to be challenging," Chief Executive Mike Zafirovski told analysts during a conference call. He said this has hurt sales related to CDMA, or Code Division Multiple Access, wireless technology….

Bell Canada to Cut 2,500 Jobs

by the Associated Press July 29, 2008
BCE Inc. said it is cutting about 2,500 positions at Bell Canada, representing about 6% of the unit’s total workforce, as it attempts to streamline its management and lower costs……

SK Telecom Profit Dented By Marketing Costs

WSJ By IN-SOO NAM July 25, 2008

SEOUL — SK Telecom Co. reported a worse-than-expected 26% decline in quarterly net profit, pressured by higher marketing costs and a fall in wireless-data revenue…….

Sprint to Sell Cellphone Towers, Use Money to Pay Down Debt

WSJ By AMOL SHARMA July 24, 2008

Sprint Nextel Corp. agreed to sell nearly all its cellphone towers to a private-equity-backed firm called TowerCo in a deal that will generate about $670 million in cash for the struggling wireless carrier……

Write to Amol Sharma at amol.sharma@wsj.com

Earnings Rose at AT&T, but Revenue Misses Forecast

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS July 24, 2008

AT&T, the telecommunications company, reported second-quarter results on Wednesday that contained signs that the weak economy was catching up to its previously steady results…………

TV Service Stalls for Verizon, but Increase in Wireless Customers Keeps Earnings Strong

The New York Times, By LAURA M. HOLSON July 29, 2008

Verizon Communications is having a harder time pushing its television service, which competes with the big cable companies, but the company said the slowing economy had not hurt its cellphone business.

Motorola Reorganizes Unit before Earnings Report

Forbes ByElizabeth Woyke, 07.28.08

In an ongoing attempt to revitalize its business, Motorola will restructure one of its largest units into three groups. Analysts, however, are focusing on how the Schaumburg, Ill.-based telecom equipment maker plans to shore up profits……..

Chairman Tchuruk, CEO Russo To Step Down From Alcatel-Lucent

By LEILA ABBOUD and JETHRO MULLEN July 29, 2008

PARIS — The architects of the trans-Atlantic merger that created Alcatel-Lucent two years ago are stepping aside, leaving a telecommunications-equipment firm still struggling to figure out how to survive in an industry plagued by increasingly brutal competition and eroding profits……

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121731277019992807.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

Comment: The founders of the French-US telecom equipment maker are finally leaving the company created by the merger from hell. Their departure should help end the group’s nationalist paralysis. But the timing is awful. No successor has been named for either post. Without a succession plan Alcatel-Lucent looks as lost as ever. The outlook doesn’t look much brighter for the rest of the year, as economic woes make telecom operators reluctant to spend to upgrade their networks. Alcatel-Lucent still expects the overall telecom equipment and services market to remain flat in 2008. However, their share will likely decline.

"I don’t think it should be seen as good news," said WestLB analyst Thomas Langer. "What you need in such difficult times is true leadership." Mr. Langer, who has a "sell" rating on Alcatel-Lucent stock.

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Addendum: Unfortunately, More of the Same —— August 7, 2008

Deutsche Telekom Net Profits Slump

By Rhonda Wickham WirelessWeek - August 7, 2008

Deutsche Telekom AG reported that its Q2 net profit fell 35% due to economic and business effects such as 1-time charges, a stronger euro and higher interest payments.

The operator posted net profits for the period ended June 30 of $607.2 million, down from $929.7 million a year earlier, when the company booked a gain from the sale of T-Online France.

Deutsche Telekom, parent company of T-Mobile USA, saw revenue fall 2.9%, due to the strong euro against the dollar and pound. DT also saw a 7.1% decline in its German fixed-line customers to 29.82 million from 32.09 million. Its retail broadband customers grew 23.5% to 9.9 million. Total mobile customers increased 8.7% to 125 million, with the U.S. customer base rising 12.3% and Europe increasing 7.5%.

Sprint customers continue to flee, base drops to 51.9M

By Sue Marek Fierce Wireless- August 6, 2008

Sprint Nextel disappointed investors once again with some less-than-stellar second quarter results. In particular, the company continues to lose customers at a rapid rate–it lost 901,000 customers in second quarter, giving it a total of 51.9 million customers, compared with 54 million the end of the same quarter last year. On the revenue front, the operator had a second-quarter net loss of $344 million, compared with a year-earlier profit of $19 million. Revenue fell 11 percent to $9.06 billion. Wireless revenue was $7 billion, also a decline of 11 percent year over year.

In a call with financial analysts and investors this morning, Sprint executives tried to mitigate the damages by singing the praises of the company’s "Simply Everything" unlimited voice and data plan and the introduction of Samsung’s Instinct smart phone. CEO Dan Hesse repeatedly talked about how Simply Everything is encouraging stabilization among its customer base and has performed better than expected. In addition, he talked at length about how the Samsung Instinct is driving more data usage among customers.

Sprint also said it plans to make an offering of $3 billion in cumulative perpetual convertible preferred stock but executives wouldn’t go into any details on that offering. Last month Sprint agreed to sell almost all of its towers to private tower company TowerCo for about $670 million in cash. The company planned to use the proceeds to pay off debt.

Qwest Q2 profit heads south, along with outlook

By Dan O’Shea Fierce Telecom- August 6, 2008

On the heels of having its four-market forbearance petition rejected, Qwest Communications reported a 24 percent decline in profit to $188 million as part of its second quarter earnings summation. Revenue was down about 2 percent overall to $3.38 billion, and because the Federal Communications Commission rejected Qwest’s request for forbearance from access charge regulation, the telco will not be able to realize more revenue through higher wholesale pricing.

The telco adjusted its outlook lower for the rest of the year, saying that revenue growth will be only about 2.5 percent. Qwest also reported that access lines declined about 8 percent to 12.2 million. Positive news included an addition of 32,000 satellite TV subscribers via Qwest’s partnership with DirecTV, growth of about 9 percent in Internet and video revenue, and a rise of about 14 percent overall in broadband subscribers. All in all, this particular earnings report could not have been how Qwest CEO Edward Mueller had hoped to celebrate his first anniversary as chief. Looking back at the past year, Mueller has made a few changes here and there, and a couple of major decisions–most notably Qwest’s icing of Sprint as its wireless partner (though that wasn’t really a hard decision), and the company’s $300 million commitment to FTTN, but not for video. Is the company any better off than it was one year ago?

Qwest Posts 24% Profit Drop, Cuts Outlook for Year

By ANDREW LAVALLEE WSJ August 7, 2008

Qwest Communications International Inc. reported a 24% drop in second-quarter profit and lowered its outlook for the year, as land-line losses and market-share declines in its broadband unit continued to drag down the company’s results.

Revenue fell 2.3% to $3.38 billion. Qwest ended the quarter with 12.2 million access lines, down 8.2% from the year-ago quarter, following similar land-line losses from AT&T Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. Qwest is feeling the strains of the weak economy, particularly in states like Arizona and Iowa, where the real-estate market has been hard-hit.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121802422646016645.html?mod=telecommunications_primary_hs

MetroPCS’s Net Slips Amid Rising Costs, Lower Per-User Revenue

By DAVID BENOIT WSJ- August 7, 2008

MetroPCS Communications Inc. posted a 13% decrease in second-quarter net income as falling revenue per user and rising costs offset continued subscriber gains. The wireless provider recorded net income of $50.5 million, or 14 cents a share, compared with $58.1 million, or 17 cents a share, a year earlier. The latest results included a three-cent charge on the firm’s investment in auction-rate securities. Revenue rose 23% to $678.8 million from $551.2 million. The mean estimates of analysts according to Thomson Reuters were for earnings of 17 cents a share on revenue of $679.1 million.

Average revenue per subscriber was down 3.3% and the cost per user rose slightly. But total operating costs surged 30%.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121810880138720237.html?mod=telecommunications_primary_hs

Vonage Narrows Loss, But Turnover Remains High

By ANDREW LAVALLEE WSJ August 8, 2008

Vonage Holdings Corp. narrowed its second-quarter loss but added far fewer customers, in part because it cut back on advertising. The Internet-phone company, based in Holmdel, N.J., reported a loss of $6.9 million, or four cents a share, compared with a year-ago loss of $23.2 million, or 15 cents a share. Revenue climbed 11% to $227.5 million.

The rate of customer defections, or churn, fell to 3% from 3.3% in the previous quarter. Vonage — which provides phone service to households through Internet access lines — has struggled to reduce turnover in a saturated and competitive telecommunications industry. Total wireless churn at competitors such as AT&T Inc. and Verizon Wireless, Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group PLC’s joint venture, was 1.6% and 1.1%, respectively.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121814662502922101.html?mod=telecommunications_primary_hs

Maravedis-BWA Webinar: WiMAX Counts 1Q08 Market Survey

Alan Weissberger — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 23:29:25 +0000

Overview:

The global Broadband Wireless Access (BWA)/ WiMAX subscriber base increased by more than 200,000 in the first quarter of 2008, reaching nearly 2 million (1.98M ) subscribers worldwide, according to Montreal based market research and analysis firm Maravedis. Service revenue increased more than 20% to $366.2M.

Author’s Note: It is not clear how many of these BWA deployments were WiMAX Forum compliant vs WiMAX ready or proprietary BWA.

The quarterly report from Maravedis affiliate WiMAXCounts.com+ is available for purchase at:

http://www.maravedis-bwa.com/wimax.asp

+ WiMAX Counts is a WiMAX Operator Deployment and Tracking service. According to Maravedis, “WiMAXCounts is a unique web-based service that tracks WiMAX Operator deployments and provides detailed information on the worldwide WiMAX ecosystem. Maravedis launched the service in May 2007 covering 100 WiMAX Operator profiles across 36 countries. Today we are proud to announce that WiMAX Counts currently profiles over 260 Operators across 90 countries.”

Highlights:

From Q4 2007 to Q1 2008, subscriber quarter-to-quarter growth was 19%; basically the same quarterly growth trend since Q1 2007. With a residential monthly ARPU of US$ 48.08 and business ARPU of $146.02, this subscriber base generated estimated quarterly revenues of US$366.22 millions, an increase of 20% with respect to the previous quarter.

There continues to be many more residential subscribers than business subscribers, despite operator tendency to focus on business offerings. 65% of the subscriber base is residential versus 35% business. However, the typical customer mix among operators is 52% business and 48% residential (this split did not change from the previous quarter). North America was the region with the highest residential customer base with 78% residential and 22% business.

To our surprise, Clearwire was by far the largest WiMAX network operator with an estimated 443,000 subscribers in the United States at the end of Q1 2008. (Clearwire is now looking to partner with wireless telcos to provide WiMAX service in Europe). Korea Telecom was a distance second, with their WiBro deployments in South Korea. Unwired, Irish Broadband, and Banda round out the top 5 WiMAX operators in terms of subscribers. Latin and Central America recorded 35 WiMAX deployments across 14 countries and 261,000 subscribers at the end of 1Q08,

http://www.bnamericas.com/news/telecommunications/Maravedis:_35_WiMax_deployments_in_Latin_America_in_Q1

Motorola remains the leader in BWA/WiMAX equipment deployed for both CPEs and Base Stations (but again, we don’t know how much is WiMAX compliant vs proprietary, e.g. the hugely popular Canopy BWA system). See Addendum below.

The most popular WiMAX spectrum is 3.3 –3.8GHz, with 63% of deployments in that frequency band in 1Q08, compared to 70% of the operators deploying in this band during 4Q07. Cintia Garza, co-author of the WiMAXCounts Quarterly Report, explained that this does not mean there was a drop in the use of the 3.5GHz band. Rather there has been an increase in deployments in the 2.5GHz band and auctions in 2.3GHz and 2.5GHz, mainly in Europe, during the quarter. "I would say the 2.5GHz band is generating a lot of interest around the world for mobile deployments. The lower the frequency band, the better the propagation characteristics," Garza said.

Author’s Note: Clearwire-Sprint plan all their WiMAX deployments in the 2.5GHz band.

The latest global BWA/WiMAX Licensed Spectrum Utilization Status:

65% in commercial deployment

10% idle spectrum

13 % in trials

9% commercial service (launch) pending

3% lost spectrum (assume NOT available for use)

Maravedis Note: There were various operators that planned to launch during the first quarter of 2008 and postponed their commercial launch for later this year, such as Global Mobile (Taiwan), which plans to launch in early 2009 and Sprint Nextel, which initially planned for a commercial launch of Xohm in April this year.

Applications:

The report found that of the 264 network operators tracked, approximately 50% of them are providing only high-speed Internet services. The remaining BWA/WiMAX carriers are offering additional value added services, such as VoIP, video or VPN. Maravedis expects the majority of these carriers will offer one or more additional services in the next two or three years. Robert Syputa, Maravedis partner and senior analyst said the company expects double/triple play to become the norm in the next two years.

Summing Up:

“Even with an increase of more than 19% in WiMAX subscribers in the first quarter of 2008, operators are still waiting for the tipping point that will lead to acceleration of WiMAX adoption and deployments,” said Adlane Fellah, CEO and founder of Maravedis, in a statement. “The key factors mainly center on certification of mobile WiMAX equipment, a reduction in CPE pricing and the emergence of a device ecosystem.”

Cintia Garza, stated: “Many operators have held back their network expansion pending the mobile WiMAX 802.16e equipment certification, which was announced in June 2008. Mobile WiMAX is a key enabler of a wider range of value-added services and product flexibility.”

Technical Contact for this report: cinita@maravedis-bwa.com.com

Other contact: Please email me at alan@viodi.com if you’d like my assessment of the WiMAX market and critical unresolved issues.

Addendum:

Here’s an article that sheds light on the question of Proprietary BWA vs WiMAX deployments:

Clearwire the big kahuna in broadband wireless

"Of the 1.988 million broadband wireless subscribers in the world, more than half of which are on a network using a proprietary broadband wireless network such as Motorola’s NextNet or Canopy or Alvarion or Aperto Networks’ pre-WiMAX kits. Of the 602,000 customers on WiMAX gear, 509,000 have fixed WiMAX service (networks based on the IEEE 802.16d standard), while only 193,000 are using a true mobile WiMAX (IEEE 802.16e) network, and of those, the vast majority, 145,000, are on Korea Telecom’s WiBro network, which gained certification under the WiMAX Forum this year."

http://telephonyonline.com/wireless/news/clearwire-leading-bwa-provider-0708/

Here’s the latest from Robert Sypuda VP of Maravedis:

Harmonization of WiMAX and LTE makes good sense for the development of the industry. Participants from both the WiMAX and LTE camp and IEEE and ETSI 3GPP standards organizations have recognized the need to collaborate on development of communications. Vodafone is among operators that have called for merging of WiMAX and LTE because this will reduce conflicts and costs for the industry. The long-term trends in technology, regulation, ecosystem consolidation and globalization contribute to the rationale that wireless systems should strive to achieve common air interfaces where feasible. The primary obstacle to achieving harmonization of WiMAX and LTE is simply the commercial self-interests that prevent a common push forward.

Intel’s CEO, Paul Otellini, and Sean Maloney, head of sales and marketing, have called for harmonization between WiMAX and LTE, pointing out the goals of unified broadband communications and common use of technologies. Maloney came close to substantiating our forecast that Intel will eventually provide combined support regardless of whether the standards groups achieve official harmonization in remarks about providing a multi-mode WiMAX plus LTE chipset: "We don’t have any plans to do that yet," added Mr. Maloney. "It would certainly be a nice long term goal."

http://www.maravedis-bwa.com/article-81.html

IEEE ComSoc-SCV Workshop: Location Based Technologies and Services

Alan Weissberger — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 00:23:43 +0000

Summary of Location Based Technologies and Services Workshop

[June 19, 2008, Crown Plaza Hotel, San Francisco International Airport]

Alan J. Weissberger

IEEE ComSoc- SCV Secretary and Program Chair

Backgrounder:

Yankee Group tele-briefing report on Location Based Services and Technologies:

http://viodi.com/2008/06/13/location-based-services-and-technologies/

Speaker Remarks

1. Dave Reid, Director of Business Development, SiRF Technology Inc. http://sirf.com/

The world is on the go (which implies that mobile telecom services and devices will grow rapidly). SiRF believes that location awareness brings convenience to our lives. SiRF is predominantly a (fabless) semiconductor company- with the largest market share of discrete GPS chips and related intellectual property. SiRF powered mobile devices include personal navigation devices (PNDs), handheld GPS receivers, smart phones, feature phones, personal media players (PMPs), and in-dash car navigation systems.

There are many types of Location Based Services (LBS’s) being deployed and being considered by network operators: navigation, social networking, location based advertising, mobile commerce, transportation, child locator, pet tracker, etc. New mobile broadband networks, like WiMAX, will be location enabled; so will new devices, including Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) and even location aware watches. Applications and content are intersecting and this will lead to innovative new mobile services with location awareness. Enterprise customers have led applications in location for a long time, but the consumer market for LBS could now be poised for faster growth.

Verizon Navigator (offered by VZ Wireless) is the most popular LBS and most successful navigation service in the world (5M subs). VZ Navigator offers audible turn-by-turn directions for $10 per month.

http://www.verizonwireless.com/b2c/splash/turnbyturn.jsp

LBS’s (mostly navigation) will continue to command a pricing premium over other wireless add-on services, e.g. music, ring tone, games. In the future, LBS will be a key revenue generator for network operators. Nokia announced they would have location awareness in all their devices (Nokia uses TI processors).

Location Based Technologies: While GPS is only one of several location-based technologies (others include cell site location, broadcast TV signals, WiFi AP locations, RF signatures- see graphic below), its accuracy is better than the others. Assisted GPS may be used to enhance performance when signal propagation conditions are poor (e.g. when surrounded by tall buildings or when the satellite signals are weakened by being indoors or under trees). In pure GPS location tracking, it typically takes 30 or 40 seconds for a GPS device to compute a location if it does not have recent ephemeris data for the GPS satellite network. Otherwise, locations are computed once a second or faster.

Sky Hook Wireless (http://www.skyhookwireless.com/) creates a database of WiFi Access Points (APs) as the basis of its WiFi Positioning System. It uses the native IEEE 802.11 radio (already on mobile devices) to deliver accurate positioning worldwide.

Dave Reid was kind enough to provide this chart of Location Tracking Technologies:

Notes:

RSSI = Received Signal Strength Indicator

http://www.birds-eye.net/definition/r/rssi-receive_signal_strength_indicator.shtml

TDOA = Time Difference of Arrival

http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Time+Difference+Of+Arrival

Cell ID will assume location is in the midpoint of the cell (this could be inaccurate if person is at the cell edge or on the border of adjacent cell?)

SiRF has proposed a LBS Systems Architecture. They have an ecosystem in place to develop, test and market location based applications. SiRF provides end- to- end solutions and has engaged in partnerships with various companies.

2. Jon Metzler, Director of Strategic Initiatives, Rosum Corp. http://www.rosum.com/

Location determination capability is becoming a "table stakes" requirement for device makers and semiconductor companies. LBS’s should be considered as a utility - like electricity that can be turned on and off.

Rosum is the first and only company to harness over the air, broadcast TV signals for position location. The key advantage of this approach is that TV frequencies were designed to penetrate walls, ceilings and trees, in order to deliver a good video signal indoors. The company was founded by original GPS architects to deliver always-on location awareness where GPS fails – indoors and in urban canyons. Rosum is a provider of location, timing and frequency calibration solutions for Mobile TV Device and Home Telecommunications markets. In particular:

Mobile TV Devices: cell phones, notebook PCs, and PND/PMPs equipped with TV tuners
Home Telecommunications: femto cells for the home, and E911 (E112) for Wireless and VoIP subscribers
Among recent milestones for the company:
- Rosum Announces Successful DVB-H Positioning Trial with UK’s National Grid Wireless (6/25/08)
- 2Wire Selects Rosum TV+GPS Location and Timing Solution for E911/ Home Telecom products using femtocells (3/31/08)
Rosum Signs Collaboration Agreement with Intel - Will Enable TV-Location on Mobile Devices (10/07)

But why use Broadcast TV signals for position location?

The TV signals offer high power (1 MW ERP typical), low frequency (50-750 MHz), frequency diversity (wide 6 to 8 MHz channels, multiple channels per tower), and horizontal signals (less attenuation from roofs and walls). Moreover, the terrestrial TV infrastructure is highly correlated with population density and broadband penetration in the U.S. In a one on one test of TV Positioning vs. GPS based location tracking, GPS failed at three of six indoor locations in the SF Bay Area.

Editors Note: GPS vendors, such as SiRF and others, would likely question those test results. However, Rosum uses third party testing in order to address concerns of competing technology vendors.

The best of both worlds might be a hybrid approach - where GPS and TV based positioning are combined in one device. In that case, GPS would be used outdoors, while TV positioning would be used indoors and in canyons (where GPS often fails).

The location technology and device market is consolidating, with many mergers and acquisition of key players, e.g. Nokia acquiring mapmaker Navteq. Other market themes of note:

Online mapping arms race between Google, Microsoft, Yahoo
Combination Personal Navigation Device / Portable Media Players (PND / PMPs)
Convergence of PNDs and Communications devices (i.e., cell phones)

Two popular hand held devices with LBS and positioning technology:

Blackberry with Google Maps and GPS positioning
Apple iPOD Touch with Google Maps and 802.11x (WiFi) based positioning

What Comes Next for LBS’s?

Connected (not silo’d) use of location information with two categories foreseen:
- Groups: self-chosen affiliations, such as Social Networks
- Swarms: (anonymous) use of location for ITS enhancements
Resolution of privacy issues (TBD)

Growth in new LBS’s such as: Social Networks, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), Connected Navigation, and Local Search/ Advertising (Google and Yahoo)

Panel Session

The author chaired a panel session with the two speakers. It consisted of a few pre-planned questions for discussion, audience Q and A, and a wrap up question about the nature of future devices for LBS’s (cell phones, iPODs, other gadgets, or Mobile Internet Devices=MIDs). The panelists agreed that the big software companies (including Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, Oracle) all had LBS initiatives underway. They also believed that the smart phone (cell phone + Internet + LB technology) would dominate the LBS market, especially over non-voice capable MIDs.

Jon later amended his panel session remarks regarding MIDs: "If you define MIDs as including devices with integrated WiFi, such as the mylo or iPod Touch, then yes, I believe that market will develop. With that said the overall cell phone market will still remain much larger."

The author thanked the panelists and the audience (35 attendees) for their participation in this very enlightening and informative workshop. We also thanked IEEE SECON for sponsoring the workshop in conjunction with their annual conference.

Addendum: Critical issues for mobile network operators

At a VoiceCon- Spring 2008 panel on LBS’s, the critical issues for mobile network operators were identified:

Security and privacy-authentication, authorization, encryption, etc.
Application integrity - to prevent apps from harming network or users
Power dissipation and utilization
Flexibility and customizability
Integration of new value added services (e.g. location)
Billing: What to charge for a new service? Flat rate vs. Usage based (metered)

Postscript: Location Based Social Networking from Verizon Wireless

On June 26, 2008, Verizon Wireless announced that its location based social networking service- known as loopt - is now available to its subscribers. The original announcement this past March anticipated an April launch for the service, but according to Verizon Wireless spokesman Jeffrey Nelson, “technical issues, pricing issues and running the application through some traps before launch,” caused the delay. Regarding security and privacy, Nelson said: "We’ve strengthened the privacy capabilities even further. We will be pinging customers on a regular basis to let them know their loopt account is active and that they can be tracked."

Loopt’s CEO Sam Altman had previously stated that privacy had been one of the biggest issues facing the uptake of location-based mobile social networking and that solving them is a key step toward achieving inter-carrier LBS services. Evidently privacy is no longer a problem- at least not for Verizon Wireless.

AT&T, Verizon Wireless Underwhelming Plans for 700MHz Spectrum

Alan Weissberger — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 23:40:03 +0000

Last night, winners of the "beachfront property" FCC 700MHz auction were finally permitted to reveal their plans for using the spectrum obtained. AT&T and Verizon won most of the licenses, spending a combined $16 billion. As anticipated, the wireless giants aim to build faster wireless broadband networks capable of delivering high-speed data, voice, video and other services. But those 4G networks won’t be available for at least three years!

And now for the hype: "This is all about fourth-generation growth," said Verizon spokesman Jim Gerace, referring to the next phase of cellphone technology based on faster networks and more sophisticated devices.

Some of the spectrum Verizon acquired is required to be open to all applications and devices. An open platform will draw application developers to Verizon’s service, which will make it more popular with customers, Mr. Gerace said. Verizon Wireless, jointly owned by Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group PLC, shelled out $9.4 billion on licenses.

Rival AT&T, meanwhile, said that its newly acquired spectrum will allow it to beef up the quality of its current services as well as transition to faster, more advanced wireless broadband services.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120728418087789277.html?mod=rss_whats_news_technology

Opinion: We are very disappointed with the auction results: No new nationwide wireless network, no new network providers, public safety left out in the cold, and uncertainty on what Dish Network Inc will do with the spectrum they won. Let’s focus on the failure of the D block auction, with public safety the big loser.

When I was interviewed for a MacNeil-Lehrer Newshour article on the 700MHz auction, I tried to emphasize that the failure of the D Block auction (to attract a minimum bid) was a disaster for public safety. Unfortunately, the writer did not include that info in the article. Here’s the quote and url:

"No one knows what the other players are going to do, because this spectrum doesn’t dictate what wireless technology you use," said Alan J. Weissberger, a Silicon Valley telecommunications consultant with DCT Advisors.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/science/jan-june08/spectrum_03-28.html

We have previously written about the Fading Hopes for Muni Wireless networks as well as the failure of the 700MHz D Block (public-private partnership) FCC auction. When you combine these two, one realizes that public safety networks have been left in a frozen state, with no opportunity to upgrade to a more efficient, interoperable network architecture.

To recap: Public safety organizations were a big loser in the FCC auction, as the minimum bid for the D block was not achieved. That combined with the failure of Muni Wireless networks to gain market traction nixes any upgrade plans for public safety wireless nets. Many failed muni WiFi networks, like Wireless Silicon Valley, were intended to provide interoperability amongst public safety organizations (police, fire, municipal govts, etc) which currently run their own private networks, often on different frequencies.viodi.com/2008/03/23/hope-fading-for-muni-wireless-networks-is-wimax-the-answer/

So the failure of the D block auction looms large for public safety organizations. Without public private partnerships for the D block or muni wireless networks serving them, public safety is left with many non- compatible, non- interconnected wireless networks.

Interoperability between public safety organizations are needed at times of regional disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina and the huge bridge collapse in Minnesota. There are many instances in which joining the disparate public safety networks could save lives of first responders.

We conclude that public safety networks will continue to be a hodge podge of proprietary and non-interconnected offerings unless a white knight appears that will re-initiate public private muni wireless networks. Could Google be that white knight? We don’t think so.

WiMAX in India- Whom do you believe: press or Indian government official?

Alan Weissberger — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 23:24:10 +0000

Business Week called it "A WiMAX Breathrough in India- Tata Communications unveils an ambitious plan to become global leader in wireless broadband by launching the world’s largest commercial network

On Mar. 4, India’s Tata Communications , an emerging broadband wireless service provider, announced the countrywide rollout of a commercial WiMax network in India, the largest anywhere in the world of the high-speed, wireless broadband technology.

Already 10 Indian cities and 5,000 retail and business customers use the product, and by next year Tata will offer service in 115 cities nationwide. The folks at Tata can hardly contain their excitement. "WiMax is not experimental, it’s oven-hot," says Tata’s Prateek Pashine, in charge of the company’s broadband and retail business.

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/mar2008/gb20080312_47…

But will this really be one of the largest WiMAX networks in the world?

On Friday evening, March 21st, we heard directly from the Indian IT minister Mr. Raja¹, that only 10M WiMAX subscribers were expected by 2011. That was quite disappointing for a country that has over 1 B residents!

So there is obviously a huge disconnect from what is reported in the business/ trade press and what the Indian government knows. This seems like more hype for the already way over hyped WiMAX market potential.

1. Tamil Manram hosted a dinner reception for Honorable Minister for Communication and Information Technology, Mr. A. Raja. The event took place at India Communicy Center in Milpitas, CA.