Indeed, there was consensus among the panelists that at the moment, the telecom industry is not making necessary investment in plant and equipment  despite business opportunities for companies that can exploit the new Exaflood demand for goods and services. 

http://www.itpro.co.uk/604527/study-predicts-serious-bandwidth-shortages

Global bandwidth to double in two years: 

Global bandwidth demand will double in the next two years and usage could be 40 to 100 times what it is currently by 2018, according to a study.   The study, commissioned by CIP technologies, says demand will be over 160 terabits per second in 2010, which is more than the total demand from 1998 to 2008.  

Demand has risen due to the popularity of video sharing sites like YouTube, which some have claimed used as much bandwidth in 2007 as the entire internet in 2000.   ‘Networks are now being used in a way that few people foresaw, for example early take-up of personalised video, rather than broadcast television, dominating internet video services,’ said the study’s author, David Payne of the Institute of Advanced Telecommunications at Swansea University.

http://www.bcs.org/server.php?show=conWebDoc.20186

Opinion: Not enough fibre

According to experts the world will soon run out of Internet bandwidth unless we install oodles more fibre optic cable. This shortage was discovered by a company which makes…..fibre optic cables.

http://www.crn.com.au/News/80396,opinion-not-enough-fibre.aspx

Contrary view point article:  Don’t Fear The Bandwidth Apocalypse

A good rule of thumb: when someone claims the Internet is facing bandwidth armageddon, it’s usually because they’re in the business of designing and selling traffic shaping hardware, trying to justify new and frequently unjustifiable broadband pricing models, or trying to scare politicians into doing what they want. The guys actually working in the network operation centers will generally tell you that congestion can almost always be handled with smart design and capacity upgrades.

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The key takeaway is that broadband households are drivers of consumer electronics spending. US Broadband households, which represent 54% of the population, purchased 66 to 72% of all consumer electronics. 50% of the broadband households bought a PC in 2007. Another related driver is that households with kids spend more per year on consumer electronics ( $2,124 versus $1,734) as compared to households without kids.   

Connecting the various devices that people are purchasing was the subject of a panel led by Rob Gelphman of the Multimedia over Coax Alliance [a Viodi View sponsor]. The home network, at least of the wireless version, is still not plug-and-play, as evidenced by the high return rates of between 18 to 20%. Less than 1% of these returns are for defective units, while most of the returns is incompatibility or difficulties with installation, according to Daniel Wong of D-Link.  Self-install of networking devices are still a challenge for the average consumer as evidenced by the high return rates for these devices. 

RyanTykwinski of Best Buy stated that the feedback from customers is that WiFi quality of service isn’t good enough. Further, 802.11g wasn’t a big improvement over 802.11a/b, so there is hesitancy among consumers to move to 802.11n. New customers don’t have a compelling reason to expand their wireless network. Notebook computers have been a driver for wireless, but Tywinski suggested that this segment is saturated and that new potential customers of wireless don’t have a compelling reason to upgrade. 

At the same time, Daniel Wong of D-Link suggested that Powerline or MoCA solutions still haven’t come down enough in price at the consumer level to create a demand similar to wireless.  Wong also mentioned that return rates for WiFi routers are between 18 to 20%, while less than 1% of these returns are for defective units.  The problems tend to be with installation and incompatibility between devices. 

Actiontec has taken an approach of working with Communication Service Providers, such as Verizon, Qwest and TDS, to promulgate MoCA technology inside their residential gateways. They clearly see the value-add in working closely with these operators to introduce technology to consumers, so as to reduce customer troubles. 

Along these lines, one of the more interesting demonstrations at the show was a demonstration of a Smart Home concept using 4Home software integrated into one of their routers. From a PC or mobile web browser, it was possible to control lights, set alarms and remotely video monitor through multiple cameras, a real live home. The thing that was impressive about this home is that it is a 60 year old home, lived in by real people (more on this in a future issue).   From a telco perspective, the smart home router could provide a relatively inexpensive way to upgrade a household from broadband to a smart broadband home. 

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Apple’s iTV or Google TV – A Trojan Horse for Something Bigger? October 4, 2006 [Club Viodi Members Only]

[Note:  On 7/4, I downloaded and tried the Google Media Server.  As an average consumer, the benefits didn't immediately jump out at me.  The Wii did not show up as a networked device nor did any of my PCs, so I wasn't able to view media from the Google Media Server on other PCs or on the Wii.  The good news is that I spent no more than 15 minutes downloading and testing, so it wasn't a huge timesink.  I see the potential, but I don't think they are there yet.]

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[June 19, 2008, Crown Plaza Hotel, San Francisco International Airport] 

 

• Mobile TV Devices: cell phones, notebook PCs, and PND/PMPs equipped with TV tuners
• Home Telecommunications: femto cells for the home, and E911 (E112) for Wireless and VoIP subscribers
• Among recent milestones for the company:
  • Rosum Announces Successful DVB-H Positioning Trial with UK’s National Grid Wireless (6/25/08)
  • 2Wire Selects Rosum TV+GPS Location and Timing Solution for E911/ Home Telecom products using femtocells (3/31/08)
• Rosum Signs Collaboration Agreement with Intel - Will Enable TV-Location on Mobile Devices (10/07)

• Online mapping arms race between Google, Microsoft, Yahoo
• Combination Personal Navigation Device / Portable Media Players (PND / PMPs)
• Convergence of PNDs and Communications devices (i.e., cell phones) 

• Blackberry with Google Maps and GPS positioning
• Apple iPOD Touch with Google Maps and 802.11x (WiFi) based positioning

• Connected (not silo’d) use of location information with two categories foreseen:
  • Groups: self-chosen affiliations, such as Social Networks
  • Swarms: (anonymous) use of location for ITS enhancements
• Resolution of privacy issues (TBD)

• Security and privacy-authentication, authorization, encryption, etc.
• Application integrity - to prevent apps from harming network or users
• Power dissipation and utilization
• Flexibility and customizability
• Integration of new value added services (e.g. location)
• Billing: What to charge for a new service? Flat rate vs. Usage based (metered)

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Poll suggested that Qwest is betting on the Internet for delivery of video, although he indicated that Qwest has a great relationship with DirecTV for video. He pointed out that young people are less interested in linear television and want on-demand content. Qwest has focused on Metro Ethernet and ensuring Quality of Service, so that they can do a better job of delivering over-the-top video. Similarly, Wegleitner acknowledged the challenge of the backbone and mentioned what they are doing with the Distributed Computing Industry Association (DCIA) to use peer to peer technology to make for more efficient network. 

All three speakers stressed the importance of being able to manage bandwidth and devices in the home. The home network was termed, “the final frontier,” by Chris Rice. According to Wegleitner, Verizon has 3.7 million CPE under management today. Poll said that TR 69 is a start as far as remote management. Poll suggested that the future is the interaction of smart home networking with a smart network. According to Poll, telcos need to take advantage of their position as trusted entity, if they are going to be successful in the home network. 

Rice pointed out that home networking also has potential for reducing energy consumption by enabling new efficiency through remote control of appliances, etc. AT&T is pushing for Uverse to be the first energy-star rated communications service, while Verizon has a goal of 20% improvement in energy efficiency in their equipment. Along these lines, Poll indicated that thin-client, “cloud computing” uses less energy than a traditional PC on every desk. 

In the end, these three technologists had more in common than not in terms of what the challenges and opportunities are. Interestingly, the networks they are deploying to meet those opportunities continue to grow further apart. 

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produced an extremely interesting panel on television navigation at the NXTcomm 2008 conference. This panel went beyond the normal hand waving and showed the future is here in many ways. One of the most interesting applications of this panel is one where broadband could prove instrumental in providing medical rehabilitation.   

Francis MacDougal, CTO and co-founder of GestureTek, demonstrated his company’s facial recognition and full-body tracking technology.  What this technology allows is interaction with a computer, mobile phone or set-top without the need for a remote control. By simply pointing and waving one’s hands or body, it is possible to control a user interface.   According to MacDougal, the software can tell to within 93% accuracy whether a person controlling an application is a man or a woman.    

One of the more interesting applications for this technology is in the health industry. MacDougal gave an example of how one study found a 30% re-growth in brain function in 6 weeks due to playing interactive games using their technology. He cited examples in Spain and England whereby the medical systems would subsidize the cost of bringing a set-top and service to stroke victims in their homes, as it would be much more cost effective than treating the patients in a medical facility.  From a hardware point of view, it only requires the addition of a simple USB video camera.

Hillcrest Labs has a different, but still revolutionary approach to navigating displays in multiple dimensions. Their motion sensing based remote control is analogous to what Ninentdo introduced with its Wii. A key difference with the Wii’s remote is Hillcrest’s ability to dampen hand tremor and provide a very stable pointer on the screen. Interestingly, this same hand tremor provides a signature of sorts and can provide greater than 80% accuracy in identifying particular users. 

Andy Addis, Hillcrest’s Executive Vice President of Marketing, said their software can be included in any remote control (at another presentation I saw earlier in the year, it was suggested that it could be incorporated in cell phones). Addis indicated that the remote control was just one part of the equation and that the navigation has to evolve from “flash-cut” (x-y) to “spatial” (3-D) in order to cut down on surfing and increase viewing.   

The panel’s moderator, Danny Briere, CEO of Telechoice, expanded on the idea of what a remote could be by suggesting that the aforementioned technology could be incorporated into stuffed animals or toys (e.g. the next generation Webkinz). This is an interesting approach, as it takes the remote from a commodity to something that has an emotional connection. 

It was somewhat a given that targeted advertising would be one justification for implementing these technologies.   Closely related to targeted advertising is consumer privacy and what information is given to advertisers, merchants, government. These issues were not the focus of this panel. No, this panel was a nuts and bolts review of hand-waving technology that appears to be ready for prime-time.     

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"………The camera shot includes a full view of her buttocks and her upper legs as she leans across the sink to hang up her robe……….."

In years past, I would have been in the dark. Thanks to the power of Internet video, however, I was able to find a copy of the video within 30 seconds and view for myself what the FCC considered obscene.  The image below is a screen capture of one of the tamer shots.    

You can see the video by clicking on this link (assuming that ABC doesn’t make YouTube remove it).      

The point is, what was obscene on broadcast television does not violate FCC rules on broadband television; at least yet. This skirting of broadcast television rules could be the biggest impact that broadband TV has on the future of television, as this provides a new medium for the broadcast networks to create derivative products (e.g. an even coarser version of the “Family Guy”). Things like limits on advertising to children, hard liquor advertisements, the fairness doctrine, nudity and swearing are beyond the FCC’s current scope for regulating video over the Internet. 

Another piece of evidence that the television business model and rules are changing is Hulu’s deal with PBS to put advertisements in front of its programming [thanks Viodi View reader, Peggy for pointing this out).   This would have been a huge deal 20 years ago, when PBS was available only in a broadcast medium.

Where it will get interesting is when politicians start hearing complaints from constituents about “FCC rule violations.” Of course, the FCC won’t have rules (although they will probably try to figure out how to expand their powers) and Congress will get involved and it will get real political. Knowing how long it generally takes the Federal Government to act, this sort of political uproar may still be a long ways out (it took 5 years for the FCC to rule on the aforementioned NYPD obscenity case). 

Just as I was about to publish this article I saw today’s issue of the OPASTCO 411, which summarized the Markey Bill ( H.R. 6320).  This Bill is an indication that the future may be closer than I thought.  H.R. 6320 calls for captioning and providing emergency alert info for video over the net, as well as adding requirements for other IP devices. Clearly, this is a grab to regulate the Internet and it probably will not be successful in this election year, but it is start of what could be a very long and interesting fight.    

To avoid future legislation, the Broadband TV industry should adhere to current broadcast rules as much as possible and, as needed, set new guidelines.   This may require the various industry players to reach across ecosystems and proactively work together. 

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• Communications (tracking people and places)
• Commerce
• Marketing and couponing

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