The Viodi View

Update from US Telecom’s Executive Briefing in San Jose

At the US Telecom Association’s 2nd Annual Executive Business Forum this week in San Jose, CA, Link Hoewing, Verizon’s VP of Internet and Technology Policy, stated that Verizon Wireless plans to roll out LTE in early 2010 (that’s about 18 months from now!) with, "possibily 75M bit/sec downstream rate." 

At the same conference, Robert Brown, Wayport’s Director of Business Development for Strategic Roaming and Managed Services stated that WiFi hot spots are growing very rapidly and that more and more people on the move are using WiFi devices (e.g.cameras, MP3 players, mobile phones) for Internet connectivity. Wayport is largest operator of WiFi hotspots in the U.S. and the largest managed WiFi hot spot service provider (they manage AT &Ts WiFi network).

Note: The agenda and some of the presentations for this excellent conference are at:

http://ustelecom.org/Events/EventSubPages/Second-Annual-USTelecom-Executive-Business-Forum-Agenda.html

Please let me know if you have questions or request for my take on any of the presentations I heard.

So with LTE moving faster than expected at the high end and WiFi hot spots increasing dramatically at the low end, where does that leave mobile WiMAX? We review important take aways from WiMAX World in Chicago and results from SPRINTs XOHM WiMAX launch in Baltimore this week.  Then we offer an opinion and conclusions.   Good reading!

WiMAX World and More….

The 2008 WiMAX World show wrapped up this week in Chicago and offered a nice perspective on the industry and the possibilities of full-mobility, wireless broadband connectivity. This article lists 10 key points from the show.

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/october/Top-10-Key-Take-Aways-from-WiMAX-World-2008

Reaching into WiMAX’s Pocket  By Rhonda Wickham WirelessWeek - October 03, 2008

This week’s WiMAX World wasn’t exactly the all-out enthusiastic trade event you might expect from a technology that launched its first commercial U.S. mobile network the day before the show doors opened. The mood was decidedly tempered as most folks were pondering the economic situation that was playing out on the world stage around them.
What should have been an exuberant time for this new sector was instead tarnished as many conversations were punctuated with financial feasibility questions.

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Reaching-into-WiMAX-Pocket.aspx

Sprint’s 4G Xohm WiMax: How fast is it?

The following link provides an excellent summary of the real world speeds and the real world devices (the Nokia tablet device is especially interesting) available in Sprint’s WiMax deployment in Baltimore. 

http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9116844&intsrc=hm_ts_head 

XOHM WiMAX Broadband Service Debuts in Baltimore

Earlier this week, Sprint officially launched XOHM TM (its mobile WiMAX commercial offering) in Baltimore, MD. “This is truly an historic day with the birth of a completely new Internet-based business model that alters the dynamics of the traditional telecom industry,” explained Barry West, president of Sprint’s XOHM business unit. “Wireless consumers will experience WiMAX device and XOHM service innovation on multiple levels as the computer, Internet, telecom and consumer electronics industries converge to redefine wireless mobility.”

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/september/XOHM-WiMAX-Broadband-Service-Debuts-in-Baltimore-0929

Xohm Could Restrict Usage By Brad Smith, WirelessWeek - October 03, 2008

When Sprint’s Xohm launched in Baltimore earlier in the week, the launch raised some questions about the future. Are there usage restrictions? Are there more devices coming? What about long-term pricing? Where and when will other markets launch?
Atish Gude, senior vice president for mobile broadband operations for Xohm, answered some of those questions Thursday in his keynote to WiMAX World 2008. Others didn’t get answers.

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Xohm-Restrict-Usage.aspx

Alvarion Notches WiMAX Win in the US Heartland with Wisper

Midwest based Wisper chooses Alvarion to supply a dual spectrum WiMAX deployment in both 2.5 GHz and 3.65 GHz. In what is the first dual-frequency deployment of WiMAX radios in the US, Minnesota-based Wisper chooses Alvarion to supply both a 2.5 GHz licensed spectrum solution and a 3.65 GHz lightly regulated spectrum solution.

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/october/alvarion-notches-wimax-win-in-the-us-heartland-with-wisper

DCT/Weissberger Opinion:

For a long time, mobile WiMAX was said to be the first 4G like mobile broadband service with a 3 or 4 year lead time over LTE. However, that window of opportunity for WiMAX is shrinking fast, as the WiMAX commercial rollouts have been delayed while carrier LTE plans and progress have accelerated. There seems to be much more telco focus and endorsement of that technology then WiMAX is enjoying, especially among Tier 1 mobile carriers.

Conclusion:

So it appears mobile WiMAX is being squeezed into a small niche market in developed countries like the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S. we observe expanding WiFi hotspots and WiFi based fixed broadband access putting severe cost pressure on WiMAX. With the financial crisis, how will WiMAX providers justify the high build out and deployment costs when they will have to charge very low rates to compete with free (or almost free) WiFi? What about the cost of mobile WiMAX CPE, especially on PDAs, smart phones, gadgets, etc when WiFi is already built into those for almost no cost?

At the same time, the lead time mobile WiMAX has over LTE deployments is shrinking fast. So where does that leave the market for mobile WiMAX? We have long stated mobile WiMAX would be predominantly used for fixed wireless broadband access in developing countries (without wireline infrastructure) and for DSL substitution in rural areas that can not be cost effectively serviced by DSL. Our opinion has not changed based on this week’s breaking news and conference reports. We also do not see any progress on the "Internet in your pocket" type of Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) that Intel talked about at our ComSoc SCV January 2008 meeting.

Do you agree with this analysis or do you have a different opinion?

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Jeff Gardner, President and CEO of Windstream Communications, opened his keynote speech at U.S. Telecom’s Executive Business Forum with a note of appreciation to US Telecom for getting behind what he termed, “credit stabilization legislation.” These opening comments set the theme for his talk, which was primarily about the financial condition of his company. In doing so, he provided insight into Windstream’s thoughts on the basic business, but also on topics such as wireless and IPTV.

Gardner spoke of the transformation of Windstream Communications from a telephony-based to a broadband-centric company. As proof points, he cited metrics that showed growth in broadband customers from 81k to 934k from 2002 to present. Revenues have increased from $3.1 to $3.21 billion in that same period, which is remarkable given the ongoing voice line loss of approximately 5% per year.

Windstream was born out of a merger of Alltel’s wireline properties together with those of VALOR Communications and instantly became a top-ten telco. It is primarily a rural and suburban carrier with about 20 access lines per mile. Still, they are facing strong competition, particularly in their suburban areas, as evidenced by the fact that 50 to 55% of their markets have voice competitors and 80% of their markets have broadband competitors.

Despite this, OIBDA (Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortization) is at 53% and Gardner indicated that the dividend was safe and, at the time of his speech, was yielding 9%. He indicated that only 15% of Windstream’s revenue results from regulation (e.g. High Cost Fund, Switched Access, etc.).

Gardner said that there are multiple secrets to Windstream’s success, including aggressive marketing at the local level. Windstream staffs at the local level and targets its marketing efforts to particular markets, as opposed to one-size-fits-all, national programs.

They are expanding distribution channels as well and are finding success in marketing to MDUs – some of Windstream’s college towns have 30 to 40% of their residences located in MDUs. Approximately 10% of their sales are coming from retail channels. Gardner suggested that they are making big investments in their save desk; they have saved some 50% of customers who were about to defect to a competitor.

He spoke of the importance of offering products that customers want. As an example, they created an offering called Greenstreak; which is targeted at those people who are wireless-only customers. Greenstreak is a broadband product which provides a metered voice line (primarily for emergencies). They have not seen cannibalization of revenue from higher priced tiers as they have carefully targeted this offering.

One of the offerings Windstream won’t be providing anytime soon is wireless, especially as an MVNO. Gardner, who has 20+ years of wireless experience, said that Windstream could not see a path to profitability for a wireless offering. He said it was very difficult, if not impossible, for a rural telco to be competitive in the wireless space.

He had similar thoughts about building out a traditional IPTV infrastructure and IPTV does not appear to be in their video plans in the near-term. With that in mind, he is very pleased with the performance of their digital video offering via their partnership with Echostar/DishTV and called it a long-term strategy. He said that they are paid in the millions of dollars per quarter in upfront commissions, plus ongoing fee for billing and collections for their 231k video subscribers.

When asked who owns the customer, he admitted that, at this point, the customer is pretty much DishTV’s. He hinted that this could change as the rollout of a hybrid satellite/on-demand via broadband offering (expected in Q1 2009) will allow much more customization of the product for Windstream.

This is consistent with their focus on enhancing the broadband experience of their customers. Approximately 85% of their customers can receive their 3 Mbs tier, 40% can receive 6 Mbs and 22 to 25% can receive 12 Mbs. To increase the value of this bandwidth, Windstream has is either offering or planning to offer services such as tech help, home network VOD and security services.

He suggested that one way to monetize its broadband infrastructure is through, “Consumer preference advertising.” This is the type of targeted advertising that has been at the center of controversy in Washington. Gardner pointed out that the industry has to figure out how to add this revenue stream to their portfolio. He believes that targeted advertising ultimately provides a better experience for the consumer, as they will receive advertisements they want to see and implied that the new advertising revenue streams will effectively subsidize consumers’ broadband subscriptions.

Finally, Gardner suggested that Windstream is well positioned for further merger and acquisitions with other telcos. He warned that the ability to enter into such transactions will be slowed somewhat by the credit markets and to not expect anything for 12 to 24 months.
 

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This year’s CTIA show occurred just one month before the 25th anniversary of the first commercial cellular call. At the opening keynote session, Steve Largent, President and CEO of CTIA, made a few opening remarks and then moderated a panel of several wireless executives. Steve, a former All Pro NFL receiver, glibly rifled off the following statistics from CTIA’s Wireless Industry Survey: $15B wireless data revenues in the US during the last six months (20% of carrier revenues vs only 10% two years ago), US has overtaken Europe in 3G subscribers, 75M text messages sent each month (a 160% year over year growth rate as of June). Steve also noted that the mobile content business is robust and growing rapidly. It’s likely that user-generated mobile content (text, photos, videos and audio) will far surpass user-generated content on PCs.

Mr. Largent predicted that going forward, wireless broadband would experience rapid change, higher speeds, and much more choice for consumers. Capabilities such as GPS, video, MP3, photo sharing, location based services (including the ability to get directions to a desired store or restaurant) would be forthcoming.

During the panel session, wireless industry executives indicated that walled gardens were a thing of the past and that wireless networks are opening up. It appeared that some operators would focus on opening the network to devices (Verizon Wireless), while others will likely focus more on applications (Sprint and T-Mobile). AT&T Wireless did not participate in this panel, but was represented in a Mobile Web 2.0 session.
——————————————————————————————————————————-
Definitions:

"Open Networks" is the ability to run an application on all mobile networks (from different providers) without any modification to the software resident in the client device. This is the rationale for the Android platform and Open Mobile Alliance.

There’s also the concept of "Open Applications," which is the ability to publish your application or service without interference from anyone, including the wireless network operator. Example: Google Android (vs. control by Apple over the Apple Store).
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Sprint Nextel

CEO Dan Hesse’s vision of open echoed what Kevin Packingham, Sprint’s Sr. Vice President previously said. Sprint believes that customers want the same accessibility to the Internet from their mobile device that they get from their notebook or desktop PC. But to date, wireless network operators have offered customers their own approved applications running on devices they sell and control. Yet customers ultimately want a choice. Sprint is working hard to help customers get easier access to the mobile Web through personalization and customization.

T-Mobile’s

strategy is a bit less clear. During the keynote, CEO Robert Dotson talked about how important it is to have open devices and open applications. He touted the fact that the company uses GSM-based technology so many consumers can already use third-party devices on the T-Mobile network by putting a T-Mobile SIM card in the device. He also expounded how the carrier hopes to "unleash innovation" through its new developer program and the importance of supporting open source operating systems.

Verizon Wireless

is initially focusing on opening its network to devices. While applications are a big part of the open equation and will likely result in big business for the operator, Verizon believes the key is to first act as a catalyst for the device makers by making it easier for them to get their devices certified and operating on the network. To understand Verizon’s strategy, one needs to broaden the concept of a mobile "device" to think beyond handsets and PC cards. Thermostats, heating and cooling, home appliances, medical devices, airline sensors are all new potential wireless network devices. "Start thinking what it would be like if every thermostat was connected to the network," said Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam. "What if the airline industry put sensors on engines in aircraft to predict failures before they happen? This will impact the way people live and manage their lives."

Sue Marek of Fierce Wireless interviewed Verizon Wireless’ Vice President of Open Development Anthony Lewis, who is charged with developing Verizon’s "open device and application" initiative.  Lewis talked about Verizon’s progress on open networks and why this wireless carrier’s approach is different from its competitors.  Please see:
http://www.fiercewireless.com/ctialive/story/hot-seat-verizons-anthony-lewis/2008-09-17

Conclusions

It seems that operators are finally talking about open networks and open applications. But is it just talk or are they really going to make it happen?  For sure, there is a lot more work to be done to turn the theories and visions into reality.  It would be nice if U.S. wireless networks would become as open as European GSM networks are today.  If it does happen, a much bigger market for wireless data (=non-voice) applications would emerge.  That would surely result in more innovation for developers and more choice for users.  A likely outcome then would be for mobile applications and services to eventually dominate the wireless operator revenue stream, with all participants sharing the revenue in an equitable manner.

References

For CTIA session video clips and photos, please visit:

http://daily.ctia.org/wirelessit08/

For a roundup of SPRINT’s views on open networks, please see:

http://sprintconnection.kansascity.com/?q=node/795

In an opposing point of view:  Skype official calls out carriers on "open" networks

In a strongly-worded letter to the FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, a Skype official complained that the major U.S. wireless carriers were all talk when it came to "open" networks, and that if the Commission wanted to live up to its stated goal of making open networks more accessible, it would affirm that this policy covers wireless networks.

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/skype-exec-calls-out-carriers-open-networks/2008-09-16?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal&cmp-id=EMC-NL-FW&dest=FW

Popularity: 7% [?]

• http://www.dot.gov.in/2008/Aug%202008/sprectrum_2.pdf.
• http://www.dot.gov.in/2008/Aug%202008/spectrum_3.pdf

Related Previous Articles:

The Viodi View : : 2nd Update on WiMAX in India article

July 15, 2008 update: More disputes threaten to delay India’s WiMAX 

viodi.com/2008/06/02/update-on-wimax-in-india-article/

Popularity: 18% [?]

Having just analyzed recent reports from telecom companies, we conclude that the telecom recession/ depression continues. Revenues are falling way short of expectation, growth is limited to mobile data, and profits are minuscule with the exception of Verizon (VZ). But even at VZ, the growth seems to be coming almost entirely from new wireless data services for mobile subscribers, while customer installations for FiOS seems to be stalling (despite the huge build-out cost and heavy promotion). Perhaps the most important earnings report tidbit was that VZW (a joint venture between VZ and Vodafone-UK) said its churn rate — the pace at which customers defect to other carriers — fell to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. By comparison, Sprint Nextel has a churn rate of 2.45 percent.

Comment:  With all the consolidation that has taken place in telco land- both in the network operator and equipment spaces- one would expect profit margins to be a lot higher, due to less competition and the power of scale. But they aren’t. The industry seemed to be a lot healthier in the late 1990s when competitive carriers were expanding their business to both enterprise and residential customers. But alas, they were wiped out after the dot com bust and stock market meltdown of 2000-2002. An entire food chain/ ecosystem collapsed shortly thereafter as the innovative new equipment companies had no one to sell to and the software and services companies had no one to support.

Growth engines: Telecom growth today seems to be restricted to developing countries which have little or no fixed line infrastructure. Mobile data continues to grow everywhere with more and more people wanting to access the Internet on the move. Mobile video and multi-media services over broadband wireless networks (e.g. WiMAX, HSPA, LTE) may provide an engine for future growth, but that remains to be seen. We hope telco video (both FiOS-RF and IPTV based delivery of broadcast video) will succeed, as it would provide real competition for the monopolistic cable companies that charge ever higher prices for digital video and provide terrible customer service. However, we are concerned with FiOS apparently stalling as indicated in the VZ report below.

Here’s a roundup of relevant telecom company reports in the past week:

Bell Canada to Cut 2,500 Jobs

by the Associated Press July 29, 2008
BCE Inc. said it is cutting about 2,500 positions at Bell Canada, representing about 6% of the unit’s total workforce, as it attempts to streamline its management and lower costs……

SK Telecom Profit Dented By Marketing Costs

WSJ By IN-SOO NAM July 25, 2008

SEOUL — SK Telecom Co. reported a worse-than-expected 26% decline in quarterly net profit, pressured by higher marketing costs and a fall in wireless-data revenue…….

Sprint to Sell Cellphone Towers, Use Money to Pay Down Debt 

WSJ By AMOL SHARMA July 24, 2008

Sprint Nextel Corp. agreed to sell nearly all its cellphone towers to a private-equity-backed firm called TowerCo in a deal that will generate about $670 million in cash for the struggling wireless carrier……

Write to Amol Sharma at amol.sharma@wsj.com

Earnings Rose at AT&T, but Revenue Misses Forecast 

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS July 24, 2008

AT&T, the telecommunications company, reported second-quarter results on Wednesday that contained signs that the weak economy was catching up to its previously steady results…………

TV Service Stalls for Verizon, but Increase in Wireless Customers Keeps Earnings Strong 

 The New York Times,  By LAURA M. HOLSON July 29, 2008

Verizon Communications is having a harder time pushing its television service, which competes with the big cable companies, but the company said the slowing economy had not hurt its cellphone business.

Motorola Reorganizes Unit before Earnings Report

Forbes ByElizabeth Woyke, 07.28.08

In an ongoing attempt to revitalize its business, Motorola will restructure one of its largest units into three groups. Analysts, however, are focusing on how the Schaumburg, Ill.-based telecom equipment maker plans to shore up profits……..

Popularity: 43% [?]

Summary of Location Based Technologies and Services Workshop

[June 19, 2008, Crown Plaza Hotel, San Francisco International Airport] 

 

• Mobile TV Devices: cell phones, notebook PCs, and PND/PMPs equipped with TV tuners
• Home Telecommunications: femto cells for the home, and E911 (E112) for Wireless and VoIP subscribers
• Among recent milestones for the company:
  • Rosum Announces Successful DVB-H Positioning Trial with UK’s National Grid Wireless (6/25/08)
  • 2Wire Selects Rosum TV+GPS Location and Timing Solution for E911/ Home Telecom products using femtocells (3/31/08)
• Rosum Signs Collaboration Agreement with Intel - Will Enable TV-Location on Mobile Devices (10/07)

• Online mapping arms race between Google, Microsoft, Yahoo
• Combination Personal Navigation Device / Portable Media Players (PND / PMPs)
• Convergence of PNDs and Communications devices (i.e., cell phones) 

• Blackberry with Google Maps and GPS positioning
• Apple iPOD Touch with Google Maps and 802.11x (WiFi) based positioning

• Connected (not silo’d) use of location information with two categories foreseen:
  • Groups: self-chosen affiliations, such as Social Networks
  • Swarms: (anonymous) use of location for ITS enhancements
• Resolution of privacy issues (TBD)

• Security and privacy-authentication, authorization, encryption, etc.
• Application integrity - to prevent apps from harming network or users
• Power dissipation and utilization
• Flexibility and customizability
• Integration of new value added services (e.g. location)
• Billing: What to charge for a new service? Flat rate vs. Usage based (metered)

Popularity: 43% [?]

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Two recent acquisitions that did not make the headlines of the New York Times or even any of the traditional telecom industry publications. The Telephone Acquisition Company, LLC’s pending purchase of Iowa’s Swisher Telephone and American Broadband’s purchase of TelAlaska may be small in terms of the number of subscribers involved, but these acquisitions are extremely important in terms of pointing to another way to operate the telecom infrastructure in rural America. 

In both cases, the purchasing companies see the value in having a local presence and local management that can run the business that makes sense for the community. That is, an independent telco’s influence goes beyond the telecommunications infrastructure. The independent telco is an integral part of a community and region’s economic development. At the same time, by bringing in owners with deeper pockets, it is possible for the independent telco to bring services, such as wireless, that might be impossible on its own.   

As Ron Laudner, CEO of OmniTel put it, “Independent telcos understand the value of independent telcos.”  

In the case of the Swisher Telephone acquisition, the acquiring entity is the Telephone Acquisition Company, which is a Limited Liability Company consisting of four independent, Iowa telephone companies; Schaller Telephone Company, Interstate 35 Communications, Breda Telephone Corp and the aforementioned OmniTel Communications. 

Purchase of an independent telco by a group of other independent telcos is somewhat common.  There was quite a bit of this cooperative purchase of exchanges in the late 1990s when independent telcos collaborated to purchase rural exchanges of the RBOCs. This was a good deal all around, as the RBOCs were able to unload properties that were difficult to manage, the independent telcos gained subscriber base and the customers received the benefit of local management. 

It will be interesting to see what the current trends of consolidation will take us, especially if the former RBOCs aggressively divest themselves of their rural properties. 

Popularity: 20% [?]

• New York, NY (VZ: 119 MHz)
• Chicago, IL (VZ: 101 MHz)
• Philadelphia, PA (VZ: 99 MHz)
• Boston-Lowell-Brockton-Lawrence-Haverhill, MA-NH (AT&T: 99 MHz, VZ: 97 MHz)
• San Francisco-Oakland, CA (AT&T: 97 MHz)
• Washington, DC-MD-VA (AT&T: 99 MHz, VZ: 109 MHz)
• Dallas-Forth Worth, TX (AT&T: 124 MHz)
• Houston, TX (AT&T: 99 MHz)
• Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, FL (VZ: 96 MHz)
• Baltimore, MD (AT&T: 99 MHz, VZ: 109 MHz)
• Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI (VZ: 99 MHz)
• Atlanta, GA (AT&T: 99 MHz)
• Denver-Boulder, CO (AT&T: 99 MHz)
• Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL (AT&T: 99 MHz)
• Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN (VZ: 111 MHz)
• Kansas City, MO-KS (VZ: 114 MHz)
• Buffalo, NY (AT&T: 119 MHz)
• San Jose, CA (AT&T: 97 MHz)
• Hartford-New Britain-Bristol, CT (AT&T: 109 MHz)
• Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk-Danbury, CT (VZ: 119 MHz)
• Toledo, OH-MI (VZ: 104 MHz)
• New Haven-West Haven-Waterbury-Meriden, CT (VZ: 99 MHz)
• Syracuse, NY (AT&T: 101 MHz)
• Gary-Hammond-East Chicago, IN (AT&T: 99 MHz)
• Northeast Pennsylvania, PA (VZ: 104 MHz)
• Tulsa, OK (AT&T: 99 MHz)
• Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ (VZ: 99 MHz)
• New Brunswick-Perth Amboy-Sayreville, NJ (VZ: 119 MHz)
• Springfield-Chicopee-Holyoke, MA (VZ: 99 MHz)
• Youngstown-Warren, OH (AT&T: 117 MHz)
• Wilmington, DE-NJ-MD (VZ: 99 MHz)
• Long Branch-Asbury Park, NJ (VZ: 119 MHz)
• Raleigh-Durham, NC (VZ: 99 MHz)
• West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL (VZ: 96 MHz)
• Fresno, CA (AT&T: 115 MHz)
• Austin, TX (AT&T: 104 MHz)
• Wichita, KS (AT&T: 97 MHz)
• Las Vegas, NV (AT&T: 99 MHz)

Questions to Ponder in light of AT&T and VZ Wireless Spectrum Grab

With the two giant wireless companies opting for LTE as a 4G technology, where does that leave Mobile WiMAX (Sprint, Clearwire), which will not have roaming or interoperability with the 2 U.S. carriers which have the most spectrum ? 

Where are the new carriers that were supposed to emerge, e.g. Frontline Wireless? 

Will there be any competition left for rural markets, which are currently underserved?

Will one or more companies build a heterogeneous network  for public safety (aftter the D Block auction failure)?

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 Addendum:  Subsequently published articles on this topic:

1.   How much spectrum do AT&T and Verizon have?

"According to analysis from Alan Weissberger with DCT Advisors, AT&T or Verizon exceeds the 95 megahertz threshold in eight of the top 10 U.S. markets, 17 of the top 25 markets and 38 of the top 100 markets. See his chart of these markets here. In the Dallas-Fort Worth market, for instance, AT&T now holds 124 megahertz of spectrum."

http://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/how-much-spectrum-do-att-and-verizon-have/2008-04-28

2.  SPECTRUM HANGOVER- 
Carriers’ binge on spectrum assets bring competitive concerns

The author interviewed me but was skeptical about the spectrum exceeding the 95MHz Dobson screen, which does not count AWS spectrum.  It is not known whether the numbers in my table include or exclude AWS.

http://www.rcrnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080426/SUB/236962331/1005

Popularity: 52% [?]

Martin Taylor, Vice President of Product Management and Technology for MetaSwitch, gave an excellent overview of XML and its ascent as the standard for machine-to-machine interface in the telephony world. XML allows for a mash-up of applications, such as the obligatory caller ID on television. Combining XML data with Asynchronous JavaScript is AJAX, which allows updating of a web page without the user having to do a manual refresh.        

Robert Cooper of Aastra followed up Taylor’s presentation with applications of how their customers are feeding XML data from Soft Switches or the Internet (e.g. think a CNN news feed directly to the phone) to LCD displays on the Aastra telephones.  Aastra’s Software Development Kit is available at no charge, so it is easy for developers to create their own applications. Cooper gave an example of how a visual voicemail application took only 4 hours to develop. 

A school system in Texas uses Aastra phones as an alternative to paper and/or computers for determining attendance. The teacher uses the LCD screen and the phone’s buttons to record which students are in class. An XML feed, sent from the phone to the IP PBX, triggers an automatic action within the PBX to call the parents to confirm that the children are home and not skipping school. A software-defined, panic button is another feature of this particular phone

One of the more interesting applications that Cooper spoke of was the use of SIP over DECT 6.0 phones. Cooper said the DECT protocol is less prone to interference than VoIP over WiFi. With SIP, it is possible to deliver the same text applications to wireless phones as one could get using a desktop PBX. I wonder if there is a way that a spectrum-starved independent telco could use the combination of SIP and DECT 6.0 to create a robust, community wide and feature-rich, cordless telephone service (it looks like Aastra could support up to 512 handsets per PBX, so it might have to be a small service area)?

“The unmanaged network is where it gets interesting,” said Michael Branch of Minerva Networks. He said this in the context of a telco operator bringing content from the Internet to the television. He suggested that an XML widget could remap specific Internet content (e.g. a photostream from Flickr) to the television. Matt Cuson of Minerva Networks alluded to this kind of widget integration last September in a panel in San Jose, so it wasn’t a big surprise to hear this approach from this middleware provider. 

XML also allows, as Branch put it, “guided viewing,” whereby a trigger on either an event (e.g. a pop-up window that links to iTunes so a person can order a song that is playing in the video program he is watching) or an action by the user could determine the content being displayed (e.g. a request for more information). Of course, XML is also useful for displaying traditional managed video information (e.g. VOD titles), as well as telephony meta-data (e.g. caller ID on the TV). 

Popularity: 26% [?]