Key Messages from IDC Directions 2012 for “The Network” – Part 2

Part 1 of this article summarized the big picture view from IDC Directions 2012 as well as changes in enterprise IT and network infrastructure/ architecture.  Mobility and next generation mobile network architecture’s are examined in this piece.

Essential guidance from IDC Analyst Courtney Munroe’s presentation on Mobility and the Cloud:

• Cloud Applications and Traffic will grow exponentially by 2015
• All Applications Providers must have a cloud Solution
• Consolidation/Partnership inevitable
• Apps will expand from basic categories to include HD Video/Business Analytics and LBS (Location Based Services) Apps

Take aways from John Byrne’s outstanding presentation (best of conference) on NextGen Mobile Architectures: Solving the Congestion Dilemma

Exponentially Increasing Mobile Data Traffic Is Driving Major Network Changes

Smartphones, tablets and dongles (oh my) driving major changes in wireless network infrastructure

• Heterogeneous network” architectures required, with the focus rapidly turning to microcells, picocells, femtocells, distributed antenna systems, “cloud RAN”
• Backhaul chokepoints must be resolved through a variety of solutions, including fiber, Wi-Fi offload and other fiber-to-the-cell deployments wherever feasible
• Operators must be able to utilize every spectrum band available, as efficiently as possible, to keep pace with demand

Continued exponential data traffic growth requires a variety of solutions:

A capacity crunch is coming or is already here:

• Operator assumptions regarding network traffic growth have been significantly exceeded form factor for video, download and upload
• New M2M applications/form factors will develop to take advantage of high data throughput
• Operators must take advantage of every solution available:

• Wi-Fi more closely integrated into wireless network architectures
• Multi-technology, multi-spectrum radios are the main focus in the macro-environment
• Heterogeneous Network solutions to solve urban hotzone and in-building coverage challenges
• FDD, TDD and FDD/TDD combinations to take advantage of all available spectrum bands

In the Macrocell environment, the focus of deployments is turning to the support of Base Stations that support multiple frequencies and multiple RAN technologies (e.g. 3G, WiMAX, LTE-TDD/FDD).

Flexibility is the focus, allowing customized approach for each operator’s unique situation:

• Ultimately multi-mode, multi-band base stations will be part of the solution for operators in most regions
• The Sprint “Network Vision” project represents a good example of network modernization to adapt to the new environment –multiple technologies & frequencies using a single multimode antenna

Heterogeneous Networks represent the “Next Phase” of Wireless Network Development

Wireless telcos and network equipment vendors are focusing on “Heterogeneous Nets”

• AIR, Liquid, Light –regardless of vendor acronym focus is on 10x increase in # of radios to keep pace with network traffic growth
• A host of vendors (and being driven by China Mobile) spending significant R&D on “cloud RAN” and other Het Netconcepts
• HetNetSolutions will vary by operator and scenario:
• Pico cell base stations
• Femto cells moving into the enterprise and outdoors
• Microcells
• Managed, carrier-grade WiFi for mobile data offload of the cellular network

Backhaul Represents a Major Challenge to Robust Mobile Broadband  (see Figure)

Operators and vendors will need to solve the backhaul challenge at two main chokepoints –

1. The connection between the base transceiver station (BTS) and the base station controller/mobile switching center (BSC/MSC).
2. The “metro” hand-off from the BSC/MSCto the core network.

M2M Represents a Great Example of the Third Platform:

• Digital Signage:
  • Remote billboards/digital ads (in areas where fixed broadband is not available and/or cost prohibitive)
  • Major areas of opportunity: taxis, buses, limousines, ferries and trains; targeted possibilities are enhanced further when combined with location awareness
• Personal Fitness/Healthcare Monitoring:

• Business(B) to Consumer(C): Operator could provide aggregated data to a consumer focused on fitness
• B to B to C: Operator could provide active monitoring directly to clinic or hospital and react in the event of an emergency (call ambulance, forward relevant patient data, contact doctor, etc.
• B to B to C: “Glowcaps” is such a model (see http://www.viodi.tv/2011/07/15/wireless-enablement/)

“Third Platform” networks must support trillions of transactions, which poses challenging new requirements:

• OSS/Policy Management/Device Management:
  • Automated response is key to profitable M2M
  • Automated customer/service provisioning, authentication
  • Device/chip/module certification
• Billing/BSS:
  • Revenue sharing among thousands of partners
  • Myriad of business models: per MB, per transaction, per month, etc.
• Analytics:
  • Value of data gathered rests in the ability to make sense out of i
  • Intelligence will rest with network operators –ability to monetize depends on developing and packaging meaningful insights
• Ecosystem:
  • In order to get to trillions of transactions, service providers must do much more work to bring application developers into the ecosystem

Postscript: 

Since IDC Directions 2012, there have been several articles on the topic of how wireless carriers will deal with the capacity crunch caused by the continued explosive growth in mobile data traffic- especially video streaming,  Here is a representative sample:

Fox News Opinion piece- burden on FCC to find more spectrum: