Update from US Telecom’s Executive Briefing in San Jose

At the US Telecom Association’s 2nd Annual Executive Business Forum this week in San Jose, CA, Link Hoewing, Verizon’s VP of Internet and Technology Policy, stated that Verizon Wireless plans to roll out LTE in early 2010 (that’s about 18 months from now!) with, "possibily 75M bit/sec downstream rate." 

At the same conference, Robert Brown, Wayport’s Director of Business Development for Strategic Roaming and Managed Services stated that WiFi hot spots are growing very rapidly and that more and more people on the move are using WiFi devices (e.g.cameras, MP3 players, mobile phones) for Internet connectivity. Wayport is largest operator of WiFi hotspots in the U.S. and the largest managed WiFi hot spot service provider (they manage AT &Ts WiFi network).

Note: The agenda and some of the presentations for this excellent conference are at:

http://ustelecom.org/Events/EventSubPages/Second-Annual-USTelecom-Executive-Business-Forum-Agenda.html

Please let me know if you have questions or request for my take on any of the presentations I heard.

So with LTE moving faster than expected at the high end and WiFi hot spots increasing dramatically at the low end, where does that leave mobile WiMAX? We review important take aways from WiMAX World in Chicago and results from SPRINTs XOHM WiMAX launch in Baltimore this week.  Then we offer an opinion and conclusions.   Good reading!

WiMAX World and More….

The 2008 WiMAX World show wrapped up this week in Chicago and offered a nice perspective on the industry and the possibilities of full-mobility, wireless broadband connectivity. This article lists 10 key points from the show.

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/october/Top-10-Key-Take-Aways-from-WiMAX-World-2008

Reaching into WiMAX’s Pocket  By Rhonda Wickham WirelessWeek - October 03, 2008

This week’s WiMAX World wasn’t exactly the all-out enthusiastic trade event you might expect from a technology that launched its first commercial U.S. mobile network the day before the show doors opened. The mood was decidedly tempered as most folks were pondering the economic situation that was playing out on the world stage around them.
What should have been an exuberant time for this new sector was instead tarnished as many conversations were punctuated with financial feasibility questions.

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Reaching-into-WiMAX-Pocket.aspx

Sprint’s 4G Xohm WiMax: How fast is it?

The following link provides an excellent summary of the real world speeds and the real world devices (the Nokia tablet device is especially interesting) available in Sprint’s WiMax deployment in Baltimore. 

http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9116844&intsrc=hm_ts_head 

XOHM WiMAX Broadband Service Debuts in Baltimore

Earlier this week, Sprint officially launched XOHM TM (its mobile WiMAX commercial offering) in Baltimore, MD. “This is truly an historic day with the birth of a completely new Internet-based business model that alters the dynamics of the traditional telecom industry,” explained Barry West, president of Sprint’s XOHM business unit. “Wireless consumers will experience WiMAX device and XOHM service innovation on multiple levels as the computer, Internet, telecom and consumer electronics industries converge to redefine wireless mobility.”

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/september/XOHM-WiMAX-Broadband-Service-Debuts-in-Baltimore-0929

Xohm Could Restrict Usage By Brad Smith, WirelessWeek - October 03, 2008

When Sprint’s Xohm launched in Baltimore earlier in the week, the launch raised some questions about the future. Are there usage restrictions? Are there more devices coming? What about long-term pricing? Where and when will other markets launch?
Atish Gude, senior vice president for mobile broadband operations for Xohm, answered some of those questions Thursday in his keynote to WiMAX World 2008. Others didn’t get answers.

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Xohm-Restrict-Usage.aspx

Alvarion Notches WiMAX Win in the US Heartland with Wisper

Midwest based Wisper chooses Alvarion to supply a dual spectrum WiMAX deployment in both 2.5 GHz and 3.65 GHz. In what is the first dual-frequency deployment of WiMAX radios in the US, Minnesota-based Wisper chooses Alvarion to supply both a 2.5 GHz licensed spectrum solution and a 3.65 GHz lightly regulated spectrum solution.

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/october/alvarion-notches-wimax-win-in-the-us-heartland-with-wisper

DCT/Weissberger Opinion:

For a long time, mobile WiMAX was said to be the first 4G like mobile broadband service with a 3 or 4 year lead time over LTE. However, that window of opportunity for WiMAX is shrinking fast, as the WiMAX commercial rollouts have been delayed while carrier LTE plans and progress have accelerated. There seems to be much more telco focus and endorsement of that technology then WiMAX is enjoying, especially among Tier 1 mobile carriers.

Conclusion:

So it appears mobile WiMAX is being squeezed into a small niche market in developed countries like the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S. we observe expanding WiFi hotspots and WiFi based fixed broadband access putting severe cost pressure on WiMAX. With the financial crisis, how will WiMAX providers justify the high build out and deployment costs when they will have to charge very low rates to compete with free (or almost free) WiFi? What about the cost of mobile WiMAX CPE, especially on PDAs, smart phones, gadgets, etc when WiFi is already built into those for almost no cost?

At the same time, the lead time mobile WiMAX has over LTE deployments is shrinking fast. So where does that leave the market for mobile WiMAX? We have long stated mobile WiMAX would be predominantly used for fixed wireless broadband access in developing countries (without wireline infrastructure) and for DSL substitution in rural areas that can not be cost effectively serviced by DSL. Our opinion has not changed based on this week’s breaking news and conference reports. We also do not see any progress on the "Internet in your pocket" type of Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) that Intel talked about at our ComSoc SCV January 2008 meeting.

Do you agree with this analysis or do you have a different opinion?

Popularity: 2% [?]

Background

The United States is third among the world’s economies in the total number of FTTH households at 3.3 million, and is in 10th position in the global ranking with 2.9 percent market penetration. What’s most encouraging is that the US continues to experience the highest rate of growth of any economy in terms of FTTH subscribers – doubling the number of connections year over year.

This is due largely to FiOS deployments by market leader Verizon (VZ) and to ongoing buildouts by more than 600 smaller independent network providers across the country. "Aggressive FTTH deployment in the US has created a lot of buzz about this exciting technology, and the word of mouth from early FTTH subscribers is driving growth and fueling further deployments."  For more information, please see:

www.ftthcouncil.org

As we predicted several years ago, GPON has become the preferred last mile delivery technology for FTTP, with BPON, EPON and point to point optical Ethernet losing market share with declining sales. The nascent GPON market posted healthy growth worldwide in 1Q08, driven by service provider investments in broadband access networks, according to market research firm Infonetics Research (www.infonetics.com).  Even VZ is moving FiOS new installs to GPON with trials offering 100M bits/sec downstream. (see Ken Pyle’s comment below).

During the same period, BPON equipment sales declined significantly and EPON sales dipped, together bringing the overall PON market down three percent to $417 million worldwide in 1Q08. "Service providers increasingly turn to PON as the next generation of residential broadband access, primarily in areas where DSL service penetration has reached maturity and operators are looking to increase average revenue per user (ARPU)," says Mark Showalter, directing analyst for broadband networks at Infonetics Research.

FTTN vs FTTP: Which is the right last mile topology?

While AT&T ( U-Verse) has gone with fiber to the node (FTTN) and VDSL to the premises, Verizon has been very aggressive in its FTTH/ FTTP (FiOS) deployment. Many independent telcos have also rolled out FTTP, as per the announcements noted in this article.   Despite the higher build out costs and potential regulatory obstacles, we think FTTP will be the clear winner over FTTN.

Our opinion is that new video services, like multiscreen IPTV with simultaneous recording, will cause a "bandwidth explosion." Despite regulatory obstacles, we think that network operators will be forced to deploy fiber as close to the home as possible to provide the necessary increased bandwidth needed for new services. It looks like its starting to happen now with several independent telcos announcing their FTTP roll outs. For additional information, please see:

http://www.bbpmag.com/2008issues/aug08/AugSep08_FirstMile.pdf

http://www.bbpmag.com/2008issues/aug08/AugSep08_WhyFiber.pdf 

FTTH growth stays on track as connections rise to 3.76 million North American households

The upgrading of North America’s last mile networks with end-to-end fiber is continuing at a robust pace, with fiber to the home (FTTH) arriving at more than 1.6 million households over the past year, bringing the total number of FTTH subscribers to 3.76 million, according to a study released today by the Fiber-to-the-Home Council.

The study, by RVA Market Research (www.rvallc.com), pegged the annual growth rate for fiber to the home in North America at 76 percent, the highest of any country or region in the world.

http://fibresystems.org/cws/article/yournews/35944

Here’s a snapshot of recent FTTP/FTTH activity from independent telcos in the U.S.:

Dumont Telephone is rolling out fiber to the premises (FTTP) in Dumont Iowa (pop. 676), replacing the aging copper in its network. As a result, its maintenance costs are going down, and trouble tickets have dropped dramatically. One of the company’s four technicians is planning to retire some time in the next five years, said Roger Kregel, Dumont’s general manager, and Kregel may not replace him. "On a four-person team, that’s quite a bit," he said.  

To read the rest of the article, click here.

Embarq looks to make FTTP a bigger part of its future

A top executive with Embarq says the company cut the cost of fiber-to-the-premises deployment 19% per home this year and can shave an additional 5% next year, bringing the cost of FTTP in line with copper-wiring solutions. James Hansen, senior vice president of network services for the company, which currently deploys FTTP in greenfields, says he now sees a day when Embarq will "do a video play on network-based facilities."

http://telephonyonline.com/fttp/news/embarq-cut-fttp-deployment-costs-0923/

Comporium Communications Surpasses 6,300 Subscribers with FTTP gear from Enablence

Comporium Communications, has now connected more than 6,300 residential and business customers with Enablence’s FTTP equipment, and will now begin to deploy the TRIDENT7(TM) Universal Access Platform GPON solution. Comporium, based in Rock Hill, South Carolina, is one of the largest American ILECs (Independent Local Exchange Carriers) and cable television operators with almost 100,000 customers throughout its service area.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/comporium-communications-surpasses-6300-subscribers/story.aspx?guid=%7BD245EE44-2492-480D-91D3-C8F91B426012%7D&dist=hppr

Wave7 Network Architect says DOCSIS 3.0 Not a Competitive Threat to FTTP

FTTP providers need not fear DOCSIS 3.0, says according to Jim Farmer, chief network architect for Enablence’s Wave7 FTTx networks division.Fiber-to-the-premises providers don’t have much to fear from DOCSIS 3.0 technology, which boosts the bandwidth of cable broadband networks, according to Jim Farmer, chief network architect for Enablence’s Wave7 FTTx networks division.  Click here to read the rest of the article.

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Please contact the author (alan@viodi.com) if you’re interested in FTTP/FTTH consulting or other research projects.

Popularity: 7% [?]

This year’s CTIA show occurred just one month before the 25th anniversary of the first commercial cellular call. At the opening keynote session, Steve Largent, President and CEO of CTIA, made a few opening remarks and then moderated a panel of several wireless executives. Steve, a former All Pro NFL receiver, glibly rifled off the following statistics from CTIA’s Wireless Industry Survey: $15B wireless data revenues in the US during the last six months (20% of carrier revenues vs only 10% two years ago), US has overtaken Europe in 3G subscribers, 75M text messages sent each month (a 160% year over year growth rate as of June). Steve also noted that the mobile content business is robust and growing rapidly. It’s likely that user-generated mobile content (text, photos, videos and audio) will far surpass user-generated content on PCs.

Mr. Largent predicted that going forward, wireless broadband would experience rapid change, higher speeds, and much more choice for consumers. Capabilities such as GPS, video, MP3, photo sharing, location based services (including the ability to get directions to a desired store or restaurant) would be forthcoming.

During the panel session, wireless industry executives indicated that walled gardens were a thing of the past and that wireless networks are opening up. It appeared that some operators would focus on opening the network to devices (Verizon Wireless), while others will likely focus more on applications (Sprint and T-Mobile). AT&T Wireless did not participate in this panel, but was represented in a Mobile Web 2.0 session.
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Definitions:

"Open Networks" is the ability to run an application on all mobile networks (from different providers) without any modification to the software resident in the client device. This is the rationale for the Android platform and Open Mobile Alliance.

There’s also the concept of "Open Applications," which is the ability to publish your application or service without interference from anyone, including the wireless network operator. Example: Google Android (vs. control by Apple over the Apple Store).
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Sprint Nextel

CEO Dan Hesse’s vision of open echoed what Kevin Packingham, Sprint’s Sr. Vice President previously said. Sprint believes that customers want the same accessibility to the Internet from their mobile device that they get from their notebook or desktop PC. But to date, wireless network operators have offered customers their own approved applications running on devices they sell and control. Yet customers ultimately want a choice. Sprint is working hard to help customers get easier access to the mobile Web through personalization and customization.

T-Mobile’s

strategy is a bit less clear. During the keynote, CEO Robert Dotson talked about how important it is to have open devices and open applications. He touted the fact that the company uses GSM-based technology so many consumers can already use third-party devices on the T-Mobile network by putting a T-Mobile SIM card in the device. He also expounded how the carrier hopes to "unleash innovation" through its new developer program and the importance of supporting open source operating systems.

Verizon Wireless

is initially focusing on opening its network to devices. While applications are a big part of the open equation and will likely result in big business for the operator, Verizon believes the key is to first act as a catalyst for the device makers by making it easier for them to get their devices certified and operating on the network. To understand Verizon’s strategy, one needs to broaden the concept of a mobile "device" to think beyond handsets and PC cards. Thermostats, heating and cooling, home appliances, medical devices, airline sensors are all new potential wireless network devices. "Start thinking what it would be like if every thermostat was connected to the network," said Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam. "What if the airline industry put sensors on engines in aircraft to predict failures before they happen? This will impact the way people live and manage their lives."

Sue Marek of Fierce Wireless interviewed Verizon Wireless’ Vice President of Open Development Anthony Lewis, who is charged with developing Verizon’s "open device and application" initiative.  Lewis talked about Verizon’s progress on open networks and why this wireless carrier’s approach is different from its competitors.  Please see:
http://www.fiercewireless.com/ctialive/story/hot-seat-verizons-anthony-lewis/2008-09-17

Conclusions

It seems that operators are finally talking about open networks and open applications. But is it just talk or are they really going to make it happen?  For sure, there is a lot more work to be done to turn the theories and visions into reality.  It would be nice if U.S. wireless networks would become as open as European GSM networks are today.  If it does happen, a much bigger market for wireless data (=non-voice) applications would emerge.  That would surely result in more innovation for developers and more choice for users.  A likely outcome then would be for mobile applications and services to eventually dominate the wireless operator revenue stream, with all participants sharing the revenue in an equitable manner.

References

For CTIA session video clips and photos, please visit:

http://daily.ctia.org/wirelessit08/

For a roundup of SPRINT’s views on open networks, please see:

http://sprintconnection.kansascity.com/?q=node/795

In an opposing point of view:  Skype official calls out carriers on "open" networks

In a strongly-worded letter to the FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, a Skype official complained that the major U.S. wireless carriers were all talk when it came to "open" networks, and that if the Commission wanted to live up to its stated goal of making open networks more accessible, it would affirm that this policy covers wireless networks.

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/skype-exec-calls-out-carriers-open-networks/2008-09-16?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal&cmp-id=EMC-NL-FW&dest=FW

Popularity: 7% [?]

September 25th Update:  Carrier Ethernet Thunder from Light Reading + PBT based Backhaul in SPRINT’s Xohm

Undoubtedly, this piece is intended to promote Light Reading’s Ethernet Expo next month in NYC.  However, it has some useful market share numbers from the leading vendors, e.g. Cisco’s share has dropped to below 50%, while Alcatel-Lucent is in 2nd place.  Light Reading claims "there has been a thundering of CESR-related product and feature news in recent months."  Judge for yourself:     

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=164629

Provider backbone transport (PBT, also call provider backbone bridging, or PBB) will be used for backhaul in Sprint’s new Xohm WiMAX network. Sprint is using gear from Ciena (and Clearwire is, too, according to Unstrung).  In this scenario, the WiMAX MAC frame is enveloped in a PBT frame and transported over fiber optic cable. 

September 18th Update:  Nortel to divest Metro Ethernet Unit

Original Article:

A recent Viodi TV video on Carrier Ethernet for rural markets (see bottom of this article for Abstract and link) , stimulated me to share thoughts about that long hyped technology, which has seen more action on standards, articles and conference papers then actual deployment. 

The following report is taken from two posts to the IEEE ComSoc SCV Discussion mail list which I combined and edited for Viodi View readers.

Our take:   In a post several months ago, we opined that despite a plethora of standards for Carrier Ethernet and over 8 years of vendor effort to get it going, the technology was still in search of a mass market.   We identified last mile distribution for IPTV and fiber access VPNs for large business customers. Well, that may be changing with more and more carriers interested in expanding their Carrier Ethernet service to small and medium business customers. In addition, we see an important role for Carrier Ethernet in 2G/3G copper based backhaul (mid-band Ethernet) and in fiber based backhaul (Optical Ethernet).

We recommend reading the Telecommunications article (below) for a realistic assessment of the Carrier Ethernet market.  There are still way too many chearleaders out there, even after so many startups in this space have gone belly up. Opinion:  We still think that the main use of Ethernet in the MAN/WAN will be: for IP VPN access,  to deliver IPTV services to residential customers, and for backhaul of 3G/4G and possibly WiMAX networks (as Ethernet over Microwave Radio or Fiber).    

In addition to the market information provided in the articles below we note that ITU-T SG13 Question 11 is wrestling whether or not to define a lower rate (ODU0) to carry 1 Gig E and 2 Gig E over the OTN (a DWDM based optical network).  They have a late September meeting in Korea, where they will hopefully decide.  One of our members participates in that committee and we will report back in early October with results. 

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Here’s a summary and links to recent Carrier Ethernet articles of interest to Viodi View readers:

The Rural Telco Play: Carrier Ethernet Fills Wide-Open Spaces

A  study that was disclosed at the OPASCO show reported that rural telcos’ traditional revenue will diminish by 5 percent this year, 9 percent next year and 13 percent the following year — and that federal and state subsidies, including the Universal Service Fund, will not support the revenue shortfall. As a result, rural carriers will have to take quick action to launch new revenue-generating services such as Ethernet.

The benefits of Carrier Ethernet are not lost on the rural telco community. Indeed, among Nortel Networks’ 40 Carrier Ethernet customers are Dakota Carrier Network, Frontier, Golden West Telecommunications and Panhandle Telephone Cooperative Inc.   Increasing bandwidth demands are being driven by a variety of both residential and business applications, including IPTV, video on demand, Internet access, Ethernet services and 3G/4G wireless, noted Mike Loomis, director of Carrier Ethernet technical sales at Nortel

http://www.xchangemag.com/articles/rural-telcos-embrace-carrier-ethernet.html
 

Carrier Ethernet services: strategy for success Service providers need a plan that balances their strengths and weaknesses
 
by Doug Allen  Telecommunications Magazine, August 12, 2008       Conventional wisdom says carrier Ethernet services are the next Big Thing in telecom, and service providers are moving accordingly, from the Tier 1 carriers to alternative CLECs. Consider Verizon Business, along with AT&T one of the top national carriers, which claims Ethernet service revenues grew by more than 100% in 2007 over the previous year, even though Ethernet is only a small portion of the carrier’s overall data services portfolio. To read more, go to:

http://www.telecommagazine.com/newsglobe/article.asp?HH_ID=AR_4370

Business Ethernet shows gains

Fueled largely by demand from AT&T and Verizon Communications customers, the number of Business Ethernet services rose 16% in the first half of the year, according to Vertical Systems Group’s latest market analysis. "Most providers steadily increased their port deployments, spurred by new Ethernet service offerings and migration of larger customer networks," said Rick Malone, principal at Vertical Systems Group. xchange (9/5)

XO Enhances Ethernet infrastructure to deliver new speeds and extended reach

XO Communications has rolled out new Ethernet speeds in several of its markets, which now have access to 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 200, 300, 400 or 500 Mbps at on-net fiber locations. Chicago; Dallas; Los Angeles; Minneapolis; New York; San Jose, Calif.; Seattle; Philadelphia; and Washington are the first markets to gain access to the higher speeds, although additional markets are set to follow. To read more, go to:

http://www.xchangemag.com/articles/526/xo-bolsters-ethernet-speeds.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/xo-communications-enhances-ethernet-infrastructure/story.aspx?guid=%7B0CCF873B-C9D6-46FD-AF4A-95049F590575%7D&dist=hppr

Light Reading: Ethernet Services Revenue Still Growing Strong
The latest news from key players suggests that the market is still going strong, although the law of large numbers is beginning to make growth look more modest than the 25 percent to 100 percent rates characteristic of 2005-2007.  To read more….

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=161630 

NXTcomm: Carrier Ethernet heats ups at NXTcomm Trade Show in Las Vegas

There have been a number of product announcements and advancements offered by Tellabs, Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Ixia, Soapstone Networks, Extreme Networks, Fujitsu, Foundry Networks, Actelis and others. While this week’s announcements address a variety of market trends, it might be safe to say that increasingly apparent needs for bigger and better mobile backhaul options are fueling some of the activity, while the emergence of a complex multi-carrier, multi-network Ethernet environment also factoring into the innovations.

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2008/061708-nxtcomm-carrier-ethernet.html

Foundry Unveils Carrier Ethernet Switches

Foundry Networks unleashed a series of Carrier Ethernet edge/aggregation switches designed to scale Ethernet services while reducing the burden on MPLS routers. Foundry is unveiling six 1RU Carrier Ethernet switches under the NetIron CES 2000 brand. The switches feature 24- or 48-port gigabit Ethernet copper or fiber interfaces with optional dual 10 Gigabit Ethernet uplinks. The switches support the IEEE 802.1ad Provider Bridge (PB) and 802.1ah Provider Backbone Bridging (PBB) standards for scaling multipoint Ethernet services by hiding media access control (MAC) addresses.
http://www.networkworld.com/news/2008/082608-foundry-carrier-ethernet-switches.html?hpg1=bn

Nortel Continues to Build Customer Base for Carrier Ethernet Portfolio

With over 40 customers around the world acquired within the last 12 months, a vendor ecosystem of more than 25 members and a growing product portfolio, Nortel is demonstrating how its innovative technologies have defined Carrier Ethernet as a viable, cost-effective metro infrastructure.   Among Nortel’s 40 customers are U.S. service providers Panhandle Telephone Cooperative, Golden West Telecom, Frontier and Dakota Carrier Network as well as KPN in the Netherlands, China Netcom, Australia’s Silk Telecom and Promigas Telecomunicaciones in Colombia. http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/0407582.htm

Comment:  What are the Tier 1 network operators doing?  For years, Verizon has quietly deployed Private Line Ethernet and Ethernet Transparent LAN.  What else is going on in the tier 1 carrier space?

Carrier Ethernet Growing Faster and Smarter

Standards bodies are working toward specifications for both Ethernet and optical networks that would run at 100G bps, which for Ethernet would represent the next speed hop in a streak that has come all the way from Gigabit Ethernet in about a decade. Another standard in the works will cover 40G bps Ethernet. But even the standards, not expected until 2010, won’t do the job by themselves.  On June 16th, the "Road to 100G Alliance" formed a technical committee to fill in gaps in interoperability among various Ethernet and optical technologies that are under development for 100G-bps (bit-per-second) networks, spanning from enterprises to carrier backbones.  http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/147158/carrier_ethernet_growing_faster_and_smarter.html

Carrier Ethernet Vendor Ethos Makes US Debut

The four-year-old company made generally available its portfolio, which includes two Carrier Ethernet transport switches, which employ PBB-TE technology, and a management system that allows service providers to monitor and optimize their networks, said company co-founder Adam Dunsky.   Note:  PBB= IEEE 802.1ah Provider Backbone Bridging http://www.xchangemag.com/hotnews/nxtcomm-carrier-ethernet-ethos-us-debut.html

Perspective from an IEEE ComSoc member who works for a vendor supplying Carrier Ethernet gear as well as other WAN transport equipment:

"From what I’ve seen, Ethernet is being mapped into SONET/SDH or OTN at all segments of the (wide area) network, with the possible exception of the access networks.  Even in access networks there are deployments of Ethernet mapped via GFP over PDH (DS1s and DS3s) for bundled connections.  As far as I know those types of deployments are all book ended (same vendor on each end of a link), though there is a standard for it (G.8040)."

Comment:  Carrier Ethernet is defined as the transparent of Ethernet MAC and PHY frames over a "carrier class" network.  That means robust, reliable, high performance.  While Ethernet OAM was developed by the IEEE 802.3, 802.1, and ITU-T standards committees, many feel that the associated cost and complexity diminishes the attractiveness of Ethernet in the carrier network.  Some say, that the cost and simplicity advantages are negated when you add OAM, Performance Monitoring, and Protection Switching to Ethernet.  So with that said, the key issue is when and where Carrier Ethernet terminates and Ethernet over SONET/SDH or the OTN originates.  As I previously mentioned, the now mostly extinct MSPP (God box) vendors thought that demarcation point was in the basement of a building (business tenants).  Others felt it was at the 1st POP with either fiber or copper Ethernet access including OAM. Where is it now?  What do Juniper and Cisco think about Carrier Ethernet vs Ethernet over Optical Transport networks?  What’s your opinion?

Viodi Video:  Carrier Ethernet for Rural Markets

In this interview Michael Loomis of Nortel Networks and Gary Bolton of Hatteras Networks explain the applicability of Carrier Ethernet to rural markets, using both existing copper and/or new fiber infrastructure. This allows carriers to provide services to rural areas that are comparable to what can be found in urban area. Michael Loomis points out how rural carriers are closer to their subscribers and are much faster to move to solutions than larger entities.

http://www.viodi.tv/2008/08/24/carrier-ethernet-in-the-rural-markets/ 

Popularity: 13% [?]

Popularity: 17% [?]

Abstract

This conference, sponsored by the Congressional Internet Caucus Advisory Committee, has become the "go-to" event for Internet policy makers and observers. To meet the needs of our readers, we are restricting coverage to a single session dealing with Cloud Computing. In particular, we focus on legal and privacy issues associated with "The Movement of Information from the Crowd to the Cloud."

While Cloud Computing has recently gotten a lot of publicity from big name players like IBM, ATT, Amazon and Google, little attention has been devoted to security and privacy concerns, especially protection of client data and meta-data (information about the data) from unauthorized entities. This panel zero’d in on exactly that topic. The three panel participants were:

• David Schellhase, Senior VP/General Counsel, salesforce.com Inc
• James X. Dempsey, Vice President for Public Policy, Center for Democracy and Technology
• Matthew Parrella, Assistant District Attorney, U.S. Department of Justice

Background

There is a lot of confusion as to what Cloud Computing really is. One panelist thought that the Wikipedia definition was a bit too all encompasing. But he quoted the first three paragraphs anyway:

"Cloud computing means Internet (’Cloud’) based development and use of computer technology (’Computing’). It is a style of computing where IT-related capabilities are provided "as a service"[1], allowing users to access technology-enabled services "in the cloud"[2] without knowledge of, expertise with, or control over the technology infrastructure that supports them[3]. It is a general concept that incorporates software as a service, Web 2.0 and other recent, well-known technology trends, where the common theme is reliance on the Internet for satisfying the computing needs of the users. For example, Google Apps provides common business applications online that are accessed from a web browser, while the software and data is stored on the servers.

Cloud computing is often confused with grid computing (a form of distributed computing whereby a "super and virtual computer" is composed of a cluster of networked, loosely-coupled computers, acting in concert to perform very large tasks), utility computing (the packaging of computing resources, such as computation and storage, as a metered service similar to a traditional public utility such as electricity) and autonomic computing (computer systems capable of self-management)[4]. Indeed many cloud computing deployments are today powered by grids, have autonomic characteristics and are billed like utilities, but cloud computing is rather a natural next step from the grid-utility model[5]. Some successful cloud architectures have little or no centralised infrastructure or billing systems whatsoever including Peer to peer networks like BitTorrent and Skype and Volunteer computing like SETI.

The majority of cloud computing infrastructure currently consists of reliable services delivered through next-generation data centers that are built on compute and storage virtualization technologies. The services are accessible anywhere in the world, with The Cloud appearing as a single point of access for all the computing needs of consumers. Commercial offerings need to meet the quality of service requirements of customers and typically offer service level agreements[6]. Open standards and open source software are also critical to the growth of cloud computing[7]."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing

IBM refers to cloud computing as an emerging approach to shared computing infrastructure. Results are computed in a data center (seen as "being in the cloud" by users) and returned over one or more Internet connections. Users are not generally aware of the underlying technologies or rules governing the flow of data within the cloud. Others believe that cloud computing is a broader concept- any 3rd party computing or storage service, with the Internet as the backbone. All panelists agreed that cloud computing employs a shared services model.

Cloud computing was seen as being an integral part of the inexorable redirection of technology from local use to the net. Storage and services occur in the network, rather then at desktops or laptop PCs. Cloud computing dramatically lowers the cost of storage to the user (by taking advantage of cheap and voluminous network storage).

We were surprised to hear that Dell has applied for a trademark on the term Cloud Computing.

http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/sitelets/solutions/cluster_grid/cloud_optimization?c=us&cs=OWR08&l=en&s=bsd

Key User Concerns with Cloud Computing

One panelist suggested there were three drawbacks to cloud computing (with my questions in paranthesis):

1. Users pay a fee (isn’t it normal to charge for a service?)

2. Users lose control over services (isn’t this always the case with outsourcing?)

3. Loss of privacy of data and meta-data (isn’t a privacy statement and contract necessary?)

Many questions arise regarding regulation, security and privacy:

• Should this new industry be regulated? If so, in what way?
• Who (besides the client company) should have access to the data/ meta-data/ results of computations?
• When and under what circumstances should notice be given to the client that law enforcement (or any government agency) seeks or is given access to the data? In particular, can the U.S. Patriot Act be invoked to commandeer data from a company suspected of aiding and abetting a terrorist organization?
• What privacy protection will be offered cloud computing client companies? How will the integrity of their data be preserved? Can it be adequately covered in a contract or service level agreement?

One panelist stated that privacy protection falls off when data is stored in the network. If it is exposed to public view, the data will not be protected at all. What about data in transit- is it protected? User concerns here include terrorism, identity threats and on-line fraud/ scams. A big concern of one audience member was that Cloud Computing service providers would hand over customer stored data/ usage patterns to govt agencies who had not obtained proper authority. Justified under "Patriot Act" but compromising privacy and integrity of data.

According to the DA panelist, "there is a crazy quilt of laws governing privacy of network stored data and that has become a major issue effecting individual (and company) rights." He stated there was a movement away from hacking and copyright infringement and into industrial espionage- the theft of trade secrets. The concern was that cloud computing service providers might not have robust security practices in place to prevent that. In other words, they might not be able to honor the customer contract that protects Intellectual Property/ trade secrets from others. (See last paragraph for a different opinion).

A crucial concern is who can have access to (proprietary) company data stored in the network? Not just third parties (including government agencies and police forces), but any and all Data Base and System Administrators who hold "the keys to the kingdom." Those insiders could pose a threat if they are recruited by an entity practicing industrial espionage (including foreign governments). But that seems to be an internal security matter, under the jurisdiction of the client company, rather then the cloud computing service provider. Key question is what procedures does the provider have in place for authentication, authorization, and administration of user requests? Are these being standardized?

One panelist took an optimistic view, stating that the cloud computing service provider would do a better job of security then the client company. Since it was responsible for security management and privacy protection of many client companies, the provider must have a very robust and comprehensive security system in place to be a viable entity. If it didn’t, it would go out of business very quickly, independent of its price or performance. Hence, the provider would be able to adequately protect client IP as per the service contract, according to this panelist.

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Addendum: IBM invests Nearly $400 Million on Cloud Computing Centers in U.S. and Japan

"We consider cloud computing to be the model that can fundamentally change the current IT market structure and create paradigm shifts," said Yutaka Miyabe, director of system research and development center, NS Solutions Corporation.

http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/24788.wss

"Cloud computing is fundamentally about re-engineering the world’s computing infrastructure, to enable game-changing — even life-changing — applications. To IBM, cloud computing is much more than the normal evolution of a data center," said Willy Chiu, Vice President, IBM High Performance On Demand Solutions.

Popularity: 22% [?]

• http://www.dot.gov.in/2008/Aug%202008/sprectrum_2.pdf.
• http://www.dot.gov.in/2008/Aug%202008/spectrum_3.pdf

Related Previous Articles:

The Viodi View : : 2nd Update on WiMAX in India article

July 15, 2008 update: More disputes threaten to delay India’s WiMAX 

viodi.com/2008/06/02/update-on-wimax-in-india-article/

Popularity: 18% [?]

The Bottom Line: 

Brad Smith of Wireless Week said it best in his July by-lined article, "It won’t happen.  The harmonization of WiMAX and LTE, that is."  

Please see: http://www.wirelessweek.com/Article-Marriage-WiMAX-LTE.aspx 

                        
Sprint, which was one of the founding members of the NGMN in 2006, has recently quit that Alliance after it selected LTE as the 4G technology to pursue for mobile broadband.  Both AT&T and VZW have also focused on LTE, as have all of the large European wireless carriers.  On the other hand, neither Sprint or Intel have announced any plans for LTE and will continue their quest of the WiMAX holy grail.

Analysis: 

The major wireless network operators are determined to ensure that emerging wireless/ mobile technologies are optimized to meet their commercial needs. The most powerful body coordinating the network operators’ activities is the NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks) Alliance, which numbers 18 carrier members and works with a wide range of other standards bodies and alliances. When it was first formed, it seemed to be a force for unity across the industry, prepared to support more than one access network technology, and bring various 4G contenders within a common umbrella of patents policies, performance tests and interoperability systems.  But now the operators are descending into the same skirmishes that have often delayed or fragmented standards over which the vendors have ruled.  The clearest proof of that is that the NGMN Alliance has selected just one technology - LTE - for its preferred next generation mobile broadband network.  That decision prompted one of WiMAX’ greatest supporters- Sprint Nextel - to quit the Alliance. Sprint was one of the founding members of the NGMN in 2006.  Now, Sprint looks increasingly isolated amongst the network operator community as it has quit the NGMN Alliance while the other operators remain. 

Sprint is under further pressure.  AT&T has filed a petition with the FCC to block the formation of the "New Clearwire" because of uncertainty of how that company’s spectrum will be used.

http://www.wimax360.com/profiles/blog/show?id=610217%3ABlogPost%3A84542

Meanwhile, the IEEE 802.16 standards committee completed its work on (licensed) Mobile WiMAX two years again and has no projects to evolve to LTE.   The 802.16 Task Group m (TGm): Advanced Air Interface is further developing the P802.16m project to amend the IEEE 802.16 WirelessMAN-OFDMA specification so that, while offering continuing support for legacy WirelessMAN-OFDMA equipment, it can meet the emerging cellular layer requirements of IMT-Advanced next generation mobile networks.  But that work is quite generic and not specifically  related to LTE.  Meanwhile, the WiMAX Forum has been certifying equipment and WiMAX compliant networks have been rolling out this year.  Backward compatibility will not be possible if WiMAX and LTE were to come together.

These diverging developments dampen hopes for a near term convergence of WiMAX and LTE into a single mobile broadband standard leading up to 4G.  After selecting LTE earlier this month, the NGMN Alliance stated that  it would assess WiMAX again in its next iteration, IEEE 802.16m.  This strongly implies that WiMAX and LTE will remain separate for the current generation.  However, they might converge in a few years at the 802.16m/LTE 2 stage, assuming that both technologies have strong market positions at that time. But few believe that Mobile WiMAX and LTE will be harmonized any time soon.

For more information, please see the following articles:

http://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/sprint-ends-membership-ngmn-alliance-after-group-backs-lte/2008-07-17
http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=24113&email=html

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Article-Marriage-WiMAX-LTE.aspx

http://3g4g.blogspot.com/2008/07/lte-and-wimax-harmonization.html

Here’s a brief tutorial on NMNM technology:      http://www.ngmn.org/index.php?id=31

Opinion:  We continue to believe that mobile WiMAX will be deployed for fixed broadband wireless access in developing countries which have little or no wireline infrastructure.  Here is one firm’s corroborating opinion about Latin America:

"Challengers in Latin America are choosing WiMAX as their access solution because it allows them to offer convergent solutions and a faster time to market. These companies can easily adopt WiMAX because, unlike incumbent operators, they are more adaptable to opportunities and restrictions inherent in the technology and the market. Pyramid Research believes that due to their flexibility, other CLECs will choose WiMAX as their access technology and, in the next five years, WiMAX will be the fastest growing wireless technology, reaching nearly 6m subscribers in the region by 2012."*

*Excerpt from Pyramid’s Network Solutions & Strategies Perspective: "CLECs Choosing WiMAX to Challenge Incumbents in Latin America"; July 25, 2008.
 

Popularity: 28% [?]

Having just analyzed recent reports from telecom companies, we conclude that the telecom recession/ depression continues. Revenues are falling way short of expectation, growth is limited to mobile data, and profits are minuscule with the exception of Verizon (VZ). But even at VZ, the growth seems to be coming almost entirely from new wireless data services for mobile subscribers, while customer installations for FiOS seems to be stalling (despite the huge build-out cost and heavy promotion). Perhaps the most important earnings report tidbit was that VZW (a joint venture between VZ and Vodafone-UK) said its churn rate — the pace at which customers defect to other carriers — fell to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. By comparison, Sprint Nextel has a churn rate of 2.45 percent.

Comment:  With all the consolidation that has taken place in telco land- both in the network operator and equipment spaces- one would expect profit margins to be a lot higher, due to less competition and the power of scale. But they aren’t. The industry seemed to be a lot healthier in the late 1990s when competitive carriers were expanding their business to both enterprise and residential customers. But alas, they were wiped out after the dot com bust and stock market meltdown of 2000-2002. An entire food chain/ ecosystem collapsed shortly thereafter as the innovative new equipment companies had no one to sell to and the software and services companies had no one to support.

Growth engines: Telecom growth today seems to be restricted to developing countries which have little or no fixed line infrastructure. Mobile data continues to grow everywhere with more and more people wanting to access the Internet on the move. Mobile video and multi-media services over broadband wireless networks (e.g. WiMAX, HSPA, LTE) may provide an engine for future growth, but that remains to be seen. We hope telco video (both FiOS-RF and IPTV based delivery of broadcast video) will succeed, as it would provide real competition for the monopolistic cable companies that charge ever higher prices for digital video and provide terrible customer service. However, we are concerned with FiOS apparently stalling as indicated in the VZ report below.

Here’s a roundup of relevant telecom company reports in the past week:

Bell Canada to Cut 2,500 Jobs

by the Associated Press July 29, 2008
BCE Inc. said it is cutting about 2,500 positions at Bell Canada, representing about 6% of the unit’s total workforce, as it attempts to streamline its management and lower costs……

SK Telecom Profit Dented By Marketing Costs

WSJ By IN-SOO NAM July 25, 2008

SEOUL — SK Telecom Co. reported a worse-than-expected 26% decline in quarterly net profit, pressured by higher marketing costs and a fall in wireless-data revenue…….

Sprint to Sell Cellphone Towers, Use Money to Pay Down Debt 

WSJ By AMOL SHARMA July 24, 2008

Sprint Nextel Corp. agreed to sell nearly all its cellphone towers to a private-equity-backed firm called TowerCo in a deal that will generate about $670 million in cash for the struggling wireless carrier……

Write to Amol Sharma at amol.sharma@wsj.com

Earnings Rose at AT&T, but Revenue Misses Forecast 

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS July 24, 2008

AT&T, the telecommunications company, reported second-quarter results on Wednesday that contained signs that the weak economy was catching up to its previously steady results…………

TV Service Stalls for Verizon, but Increase in Wireless Customers Keeps Earnings Strong 

 The New York Times,  By LAURA M. HOLSON July 29, 2008

Verizon Communications is having a harder time pushing its television service, which competes with the big cable companies, but the company said the slowing economy had not hurt its cellphone business.

Motorola Reorganizes Unit before Earnings Report

Forbes ByElizabeth Woyke, 07.28.08

In an ongoing attempt to revitalize its business, Motorola will restructure one of its largest units into three groups. Analysts, however, are focusing on how the Schaumburg, Ill.-based telecom equipment maker plans to shore up profits……..