Find a New Audience and Be a Rock Star #
A lesson learned many years ago is that one way to look like a “rock star” is to speak to a group that doesn’t know much about your topic. In my case, a talk I gave in June 1993 regarding cable modems to telephone and fiber optic engineers was so well received, one of the audience members practically gave a standing ovation (OK, he was standing when he made his glowing comments about the technology). It wasn’t like I had ground-breaking knowledge; it was just new to this particular audience*.
About a year later, I was fortunate to speak on the topic of Fiber to the Home and how wide-scale implementation wouldn’t really happen until at least 13 years later. I mention these examples, as the autonomous vehicle seems to have many parallels with broadband. Further, it feels like the autonomous vehicle is at a similar point to where the nascent broadband and Fiber to the Home technologies were 20 years ago.
Autonomous Vehicles Parallel Broadband #
Along these lines, transportation engineer Paul Godsmark, writing in the Institute of Traffic Engineers blog, warns city planners that they need to closely examine large investments in fixed rail infrastructure, particularly in lightly travelled areas.
“And LRT [Light Rail Transit]? Again the principle of high density corridors ensures the continuing need for LRT, but the lower-ridership peripheral routes may need review as to their continued viability. What is of concern to the fiscally minded, is whether the operational, business and revenue models for proposed LRT lines or extensions are sufficiently robust for their plans and designs to continue being designed from within the existing paradigm. When the large capital costs of LRT construction is taken into account, and the operational subsidy that most service require, an autonomous taxi alternative, funded by the private sector, may begin to look a very attractive alternative.”
- infrastructure – very little cable plant was two-way and telephone plant didn’t support high-speed very well 20 years ago (it could be argued that the infrastructure challenges were greater for broadband as compared to what will be required for autonomous vehicles – broadband has essentially required a rebuilding of the entire physical cable TV and telephone outside plant).
- operations – for instance, to scale to mass deployment, cable and telcos had to develop automated provisioning systems.
- customer demand – initially, there weren’t applications, particularly video apps like Netflix, that compelled people to spend extra for a high-speed, always-on connection.
The Future May Seem Far, But It Is Relatively Near #
And, like broadband, once the autonomous vehicle is introduced into the market, it will take time to reach a sizable penetration. It has been about 16 years since the commercial introduction of broadband in the U.S. By 2000, about seven years after my talk on one way of enabling broadband, only 3% of the U.S. population had high-speed Internet. Three years later, the penetration had jumped to about 16% and had crossed the chasm from early adopter to early majority. With a sizable market, broadband-specific applications were developed (e.g. Netflix streaming), making broadband attractive to the late majority and laggards and about 80% of the U.S. population now has some form of broadband.
*Unfortunately, my white paper co-authors Bill Brotherton and Richard Murphy, who were the real brain-power behind the paper, weren’t with me on stage.
