Jump Starting Mobility Efficiency

Silicon Valley may need to change its name to Mobility Valley, judging by the number of startups and established players that are planting roots in this tech center. In the above interview, John Boesel, president and CEO of CALSTART, points to a few of his members – Tesla, Proterra (electric buses) and Motiv Power Systems (electric drive trains) – as examples of those that have ideas and plans that could disrupt the transport of people and goods. In a nutshell, the focus of CALSTART, which consists of over 150 corporate and agency members, is to support its members create a clean transportation industry.

He discusses the idea of extending California’s AB32 “cap and trade” program to include internal combustion engines. Speaking on a panel at the 2016 Joint Venture Silicon Valley State of the Valley Conference, Boesel, who is also on the advisory council of the Precourt Energy Efficiency Center at Stanford University, pointed to former Reagan administration, Secretary of State George Schultz’s idea for using revenue-neutral price signals to harness market forces to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Regardless of policy changes, the trend towards electrification will continue, as Boesel pointed out that there has been more than a doubling in battery range in the past 6 years for electric cars. His comments echo the view of the audience at the Joint Venture Silicon Valley 2016 State of the Valley Conference, where 45% predicted that the majority of vehicles in Silicon Valley will be electric within 10 years, while 72% believe that within 15 years the majority of cars will be electric. If that’s the case, we may see significant changes to businesses like gas stations and auto repair shops in this former Valley of the Heart’s Delight.

 

Author Ken Pyle, Managing Editor

Comments

One response to “Jump Starting Mobility Efficiency”

  1. Ken Pyle, Managing Editor Avatar

    Will a majority of cars in Silicon Valley be electric within 15 years? A case can be made backing up the 72% of JVSV SOV attendees who thought the answer was yes.

    Let’s do a little rough math and make some assumptions to see if this could make sense:

    A simple way to think of this is that if the Silicon Valley market share of “electrics” gets to 50% in 4 years and maintained 50% market share for the next 22.8 [5/20/16 corrected from 11 years] to years (enough time to replace the fleet), then approximately a majority of the cars would be “electric”. [added 5/20/18]. To get to a majority within 15 years, sales of new electric cars would have to go to 100% market share within 4 years and maintain that level for approximately 11 years (average fleet age); a scenario that seems unlikely. The bigger point is that as electrification increases, gas mileage of the fleet improves (because of retirement of older cars and improvement in gas mileage of new cars), the demand for gasoline is bound to drop and there will be a demand for fewer gas stations; freeing up land for other potential uses.

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