10 passengers and 11.5 miles per hour are the typical occupancy and speed of the public transit bus in the United States, according to Keolis’ EVP Market Innovation and Development, Andreas Mai.* With these statistics in mind, Mai points to the opportunity associated with autonomous technology to optimize bus size and frequency to meet actual demand. Mai brings credibility to this argument, as 100 year-old Keolis provides fixed-route, shuttle, paratransit, taxi (Keolis owns Yellow Cab), back-end customer support and fleet and management services to private and public fleets around the world.
Keolis is one of the partners, along with AAA (sponsor), Navya (shuttle manufacturer) and the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada (public transit agency), of the 2017 launch of the autonomous shuttle service in downtown Las Vegas. In the above interview, filmed in one of those 15-person capacity shuttles, Mai explains how Keolis serve as an operating layer between a transit agency, the technology and the passenger.
Mai says that, “where the rubber meets the road, it is really the operation that will create a lot of hiccups.” He expands upon this by suggesting that customer adoption and business success will require clean, reliable and secure vehicles. That a company of Keolis’ stature is taking the operational parts of autonomy so seriously is an indication of the rapid maturation of the autonomous vehicle space from the development to commercial phase.
These electric shuttles are truly driverless, as there is no steering wheel. Designed to operate on a fixed-route with a fixed schedule, they differ from the electric, robo-taxi, which Keolis and Navya also demonstrated at CES2018 (stay tuned for an interview from that vehicle), which may be summoned for point-to-point transportation.
The electric drive-train approach, that these vehicles employ, has the advantage of lower operational costs and reduced pollution compared to internal combustion engines. Additionally, as alluded to in the Keolis/AAA press release, these shuttles effectively become roving sensors, providing cities with important real-time street and traffic data using the on-board cameras, LiDAR and GPS.
Mai points to his study that found the societal benefits to mobility automation will be greater than the potential loss of jobs, as automation promises to drive down costs. Mai indicates that this in turn will improve last-mile connections to existing public transit options, opening up job and educational opportunities for people who rely on shared transit by reducing the price (both in dollars and time). From a service perspective, this could mean public transit agencies redeploying their existing buses and associated drivers into more of a feeder/express configuration, as outlined in this Viodi View article, A Transition Step(s) to an Autonomous Future.
And like the smart phone opened up a world of applications that weren’t part of its original focus, Mai paints a picture of a world where autonomous shuttles and robo-taxis provide a meta experience for the passengers. That is, broadband connectivity combined with on-board screens could provide information about the surrounding world, including advertisements, job opportunities and community events, as well as fun things like in shuttle games and contests. As importantly, the seat configuration, where people face each other, provides an opportunity for real-life interaction; and if it could be used to improve the human-to-human interactions, then that would be a big win for society.
- According to the 2017 APTA Fact Book, the average bus trip in 2016 was 3.8 miles with an average speed of 12.1 MPH. Bolstering the idea that better utilization leads to more cost-effective mobility, the APTA Fact Book indicates that the nationwide cost recovery for transit/van pool is 81.6% ($136.8M revenue vs.$167.5M expense) versus 25.3% ($5.2B revenue vs.$20.5B expense) for buses with average fares of $1 and $3.60, for these respective transit modes. http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/FactBook/2017-APTA-Fact-Book.pdf
