The tipping point from automobiles to automobility could happen within five years, predicts Lawrence D. Burns, PH.D., a consultant for Waymo and board member of truck platooning provider Peloton Technology. In short, when the customer value is greater than the market price which is greater than the supplier cost, we will see a tipping point towards autonomous transportation that, according to calculations initiated by Burns when he was Director of the Program for Sustainable Mobility at Columbia University, could ultimately result in up to $4 Trillion per year in transportation savings (direct costs plus time cost of people being their own driver) per year (from $1.50 per mile to $0.20/mile).

Burns, the co-author of a couple of books on the topic, defines automobility as having vehicles that use fewer parts and less material than traditional vehicles, are tailored to a given application, optimized for long-life and low-cost per-mile operation (e.g. electric, driverless) and provide compelling experiences. And, even with the reduction in overall costs, there is still the potential for significant profits for the winners in this new age of mobility, as Burns projects that a company with a 10% market share could achieve profits of $30 Billion [note, this is similar to a Viodi paper on the topic suggesting similar margins].

Speaking at the Integrated Electrical Solutions Forum (PDF), Burns, the former Corporate Vice President of Research & Development and Planning for GM, provided the big picture for the engineers who are designing the nuts and bolts of the autonomous vehicles of the future. Of course, the shiny chrome and cool fins of yesteryear are quickly being replaced by software, as Don Kurelich, Vice President, Strategic Products Organization, Mentor, pointed out in his opening comments, software now accounts for approximately 80% of the differentiation of a vehicle.

This software-defined future points to what Burns called a shift from the ultimate driving experience to the ultimate riding experience. As he indicated in his presentation, MaaS promises to eliminate the negative parts of driving, such as dealing with insurance, pumping gas, or finding parking. Burns suggested that the MaaS providers should aim for an experience where the passenger feels better after riding in one of these future mobility machines.

As a car industry veteran, Burns is realistic about the headwinds that could hold back the transition, including the vested interests that want to keep the status quo, the implications for job losses, and the potential for industry players to get out beyond their metaphorical headlights. To this last point, Burns argues that the safety leader will be the market leader. That is, the MaaS safety leader will be able to provide better ride experiences because they will have better virtual drivers and they will be able to serve more use-cases.

Often overlooked by the general media, is that automobility will find success in specific use cases and evolve to serve the general use case. Whether serving a retirement community or providing automated goods transport, dozens of start-ups are already focusing on designs for specific use cases. In a sense, the start-ups have an advantage, as they are starting with a clean slate compared to incumbents.

As Siemens Digital Industries Software‘s Dr. Nick Smith pointed out in his keynote, the complexity of creating these new mobility machines, which will use fewer hardware components, but will require an ever-increasing amount of software, is not solved by adding more engineers. It requires a functional system engineering approach. Smith compared the modern vehicle to the human body and how the various mechanical, electronics, electrical, software, and network subsystems need to be part of a well-defined system architecture with a thorough process for verifying and validating requirements. And even that is only part of the picture, as the vehicle is really a subsystem of an overall smart transportation system.

Burns is excited about this new mobility future from an engineering viewpoint. He astutely points out that the seeds of automobility were planted in a dark time for the auto industry with the likes of DARPA with its robocar challenge, Tesla and its electric Roadster, and, Uber and Lyft with their early transportation as a service model. These auto industry outsiders are proof-points to his argument to beware of the unforeseen competitor and, as Burns recommends that, “It is important to do onto yourself before others do unto you.”